1. Intro
(1) UN's special envoy for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga ;
2. the Islamist militia terrorist group al-Shabaab as an evil wreaking havoc in Somalia
(1) preventing humanitarian assistance from coming in ; killing and threatening aid workers ; preventing desperate Somalis from leaving the areas under its control
(2) Al-Shabaab controls south and central Somalia and those are the areas worst hit by the famine.
3. the al-Shabaab recently has fractured
(1) (military) under pressure from African Union troops, it pulled out of Mogadishu
1) It's too early to tell whether it is a good and lasting sign, but it does offer the possibility of getting more assistance in through Mogadishu
(2) (financial) it is starved of financial support ; its economic base has been undercut by drought
1) can't tax people on agriculture when they are not growing anything [and] when people are running away looking for food ; shops empty, markets closed
4. this is a time to exploit the divisions in the al-Shabaab movement
(1) a famine provides a moment of opportunity ;
(2) a narrow window of opportunity right now if international community were to engage or assist Somalis while the group is weak
(3) it will not be long before it will be back in real strength
5. how to feed starving people without feeding an insurgency as well?
(1) The U.S. has eased restrictions on aid workers hoping to reach local communities in al-Shabaab-controlled parts of the country
1) Private relief groups lobbied hard for that sort of flexibility
(2) As aid goes, some diversion is unavoidable. Some money will inadvertently fall into the hands of the group
6. a challenge is that transitional federal government in Mogadishu is corrupt and ineffective
(1) whether the government can really stop its paramilitary forces from stealing food aid
7. the U.S. government fund
(1) more than 500 M in aid for the Horn of Africa, the fund could soon dry up
Opportunity In Famine's Toll On Somali Insurgency
by MICHELE KELEMEN , August 14, 2011
How can you feed starving people without feeding an insurgency as well? That is one of the challenges the Obama administration faces in providing aid to Somalia.
As the U.S. and other donors scramble to help Somalis survive a famine, some experts see an opportunity of sorts. The drought, they say, seems to be starving the Islamist militia group al-Shabaab of resources, limiting its ability to wreak havoc in Somalia.
Famine Accompanies Insurgents
When administration officials talk about the drought in the Horn of Africa, they are quick to point out that famine was declared only in Somalia, and only in parts of the country controlled by al-Shabaab.
"The terrorist group al-Shabaab has prevented humanitarian assistance from coming in, and it has killed and threatened aid workers," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. "There are also credible reports that al-Shabaab is preventing desperate Somalis from leaving the areas under its control."
Under pressure from African union troops, al-Shabaab did pull out of most of Mogadishu. And the UN's special envoy for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, told reporters recently that al-Shabaab has fractured.
"It may regroup. It may melt into the population. It may go into what they're worst at doing — terrorist tactics," Mahiga said. "This cannot be ruled out."
But for now, Mahiga says, al-Shabaab is being starved of other financial support. They have lost control of a major market taxing shopkeepers. In fact, the group's economic base seems to have been undercut by the drought, according to J. Peter Pham, director of the Africa program at the Atlantic Council here in Washington.
"The whole structure collapsed," Pham said. "You can't tax people on agriculture when they are not growing anything [and] when people are running away looking for food. Shops empty, markets closed — so their whole structure collapsed in an instant."
A Narrow Window Of Opportunity
As awkward as it is to say that a famine provides a moment of opportunity, Pham thinks this is a time to exploit the divisions in the al-Shabaab movement. He says the trouble is that the transitional government in Mogadishu is corrupt and ineffective.
"There is a narrow window of opportunity right now if the international community were to engage local communities, local leaders [and] assist them, strengthen them while [al-Shabaab] is weak," Pham said. "Otherwise, I think eventually Shabaab will recover, and if the only thing on the table is the transitional federal government, then I don't think it will be long before Shabaab is back in real strength."
The U.S. has eased restrictions on aid workers hoping to reach those communities in al-Shabaab-controlled parts of the country. Administration officials say aid groups won't be prosecuted if some money inadvertently falls into the hands of the al-Shabaab. Ken Menkhaus of Davidson College says as aid goes, in diversion is unavoidable, but he doesn't think that al-Shabaab will benefit much.
"They are presiding over the famine and in that particular circumstance, if aid agencies can find ways to negotiate space and they are anxious about this, but they think they can do it through local intermediaries, I think it will work against al-Shabaab," Menkhaus said. "It will demonstrate that others can deliver the goods when they cannot."
But Menkhaus also said a lot depends on what the transitional federal government in Mogadishu does — if it can really govern and stop its paramilitary forces from stealing food aid.
"The famine may have jolted both Somalis and the international community into finally saying we really need a permanent resolution to this crisis," he said.
Menkhaus said U.S. policy makers are thinking about their diplomatic strategy for the region, even as they scramble to meet the urgent humanitarian needs in Somalia.
In Somalia's Famine, Aid Groups Race Against Time
by MICHELE KELEMEN , August 10, 2011
As aid groups battle the famine in the Horn of Africa, the news is mixed. More food is getting through and security has improved for now, but tens of thousands of children have already died and many more are at risk.
Aid group were pleased last week when al-Shabaab, which the U.S. considers a terrorist organization, pulled out of the capital, Mogadishu. That made a dangerous country a little bit less so for aid workers.
"It's too early to tell whether it is a good and lasting sign, but it does offer the possibility of getting more assistance in through Mogadishu," said Gayle Smith, a top White House official
The move comes at a time when Somalis are rushing into the city from outlying areas. United Nations officials say that 100,000 Somalis have flooded Mogadishu in search of food and shelter. Valerie Amos, who runs the U.N.'s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, says U.N. agencies are providing help, but are moving in cautiously.
Al-Shabaab controls south and central Somalia and those are the areas worst hit by the famine.
The U.S. government recently agreed to ease its restrictions on private American relief groups that want to deliver supplies to parts of Somalia run by the Islamist militant group.
Private relief groups lobbied hard for that sort of flexibility and are still trying to make sure these new regulations cover everyone bringing emergency relief supplies to Somalia.
Aid groups have also faced challenges raising money and awareness about the crisis in the region, which has also hit Ethiopia and Kenya. Sam Worthington, who runs InterAction, an umbrella organization of 190 humanitarian groups said the response to the drought has been disappointing.
"Hunger is a silent killer," he said, It is not as dramatic as a tsunami or an earthquake and as a result it is a harder message to get to the American public."
Congress, meanwhile, is focused mainly on budget cuts these days, including foreign assistance programs. Donald Steinberg, of the U.S. aid agency, says this year the government has given more than 500 million dollars in aid for the Horn of Africa, but these funds could soon dry up.
Aid Boosted To Somalia; U.S. Mogadishu Vet Says He Would Return
by BILL CHAPPELL , August 9, 2011
Some 800 metric tons of food are on the way to East Africa, where more than 12 million people are suffering from a severe drought. The U.N. World Food Program is using nine airlifts to send high-energy biscuits to Kenya, where it will be distributed to famine victims.
The shipment is expected to be enough to feed 1.6 million people for one day. The United Nations says that 640,000 children in the Horn of Africa region are at risk of acute malnutrition.
As for the U.S. response, on Monday President Obama pledged to send an additional $105 million for famine relief efforts in the region. And Jill Biden, wife of Vice President Joe Biden, arrived in Kenya Monday with a group that will visit refugee camps.
