NPR, Talk Of
The Nation 02:00 PM EST, December 5, 2011 Monday
Limited
Options to De-Escalate Violence in Syria
intro
Over the
weekend, as the number killed rose over 4,000, one U.N. official took the
considered step of describing the situation in Syria as a civil war. While much of the opposition to the
government of Bashar al-Assad remains peaceful, (1) defectors from
the military have taken up arms, (2) neighborhoods have formed ad-hoc
militias, (3) political and military opposition groups have established
a presence across the border in Turkey.
Syria
responded positively to an Arab League peace plan, but whether it will
actually implement that plan remains to be seen.
The
Arab League peace plan that the Syrian government has reacted positively to
today calls for the withdrawal of armed troops, armored troops from Syrian
cities. It also calls for outside observers to come in and for free access for
journalists
France has raised
the idea of humanitarian corridors to bring aid to embattled cities.
Former ally Turkey
suggested safety zones along the border.
Opposition
groups call for a no-fly zone, which as a practical matter would have to be led
by the United States.
What are the
options for U.S. policy in Syria?
the
Arab League
the Arab
League sanctions has the symbolic effect of ostracizing Syria as a country from
the Arab community, from the Arab world ; the signal that that sends to some of
Assad's supporters who see Syria as the beating heart of the Arab world
Nabil
el-Araby, the head of the Arab League, has already rebuffed the idea of this
agreement with the Arab League proposal, saying they're just wasting time,
these conditions are not acceptable.
The
indications are lifting the sanctions seems rather unlikely.
Turkey
a former ally
of the Bashar al-Assad government and now seemingly among the most determined
opponents
(a
former ally)
Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey, made an effort to rebuild relations with
Syria that had grown very bad back in the '90s - this was over the Kurdish
rebellion issue - but, once the new AKP government of Turkey came in in 2002,
there were years of rebuilding going on.
The prime
minister of Turkey and the president of Syria would take vacations together.
They would visit each other. A personal relationship began to develop. The free
trade agreement between the two countries signed in 2007 showed a booming
growth .. between southeastern Turkey, the Gaziantep area and Aleppo in the
north of Syria. And now all of that is just reversed immediately, at least for
now.
(biz
b/w the states dried up)
the Syrian
consulate in Gaziantep area is closed. The taxis .. into Aleppo, crossing this
border without any paperwork .. are all gone.
these trade
ties are much more important to Syria than they are to Turkey, and combined
with all of the other sanctions, Arab League, European, Canadian, American,
this could really start to hurt them.
(no
fly zone, safety zone along the border)
opposition
groups in Syria say we need a no-fly zone as there was in Libya, a no-drive
zone to keep those Syrian armored groups from moving around and hitting us in
our cities.
-
There
is not appetite for that in Turkey. most especially there is not if a Turkish
military involvement is going to be heavy or prominent. for fear of intervention
by Syria’s allies, Hezbollah or Iran
Turkish
foreign minister talked about the establishment of areas of protection for
Syrians across the Syrian border in Syria, protected by Turkish armed force
-
To
be clear, he said safety zone may
become necessary if we see hundreds of thousands of people fleeing
-
Turkey
has also made it very clear that they have no desire to be out front on this
effort. There is really very little, if any, desire in the foreign policy
circles in Ankara to be out front on this. They would much rather see the Arab
League and the U.N. and preferably other folks as well involved.
-
Turkey
does not want to go into Syria and take territory. There was a moment back in
the spring where the two armies were lined up side-by-side, and it was a bit
tense. Neither side really wants to get into that kind of a confrontation
If Syria and
Turkey somehow get involved militarily, Turkey's a member of NATO. It could entangle
NATO in this conflict. Iran factor.
The
UN SC
clearly many
more people killed in Syria than had been killed in Libya when NATO forces
intervened there
unlike the
situation involving Libya, there is no agreement at the Security Council to
issue a Chapter Seven use of force to protect civilian life. It's unlikely that
there will be, but Russia and China oppose it.
the
US
the United
States is putting its weight behind this effort (Arab League proposal), along
with sanctions. However flawed these options may be, they are the best ones,
given the potential consequences of further intervention.
with the U.S.
now going into an election year, there will not be a huge appetite in
Washington for raising the profile of this issue if they don't have to.
the
potential consequences of military intervention
Syria is not
Libya for a number of reasons. Syria is an ethnic and sectarian mosaic.
the consequences
of greater civil war would be disastrous for the surrounding region. It's
connected to Jordan and Lebanon. It could potentially prompt intervention by
its allies, Hezbollah or Iran.
the symbolic
effects of any type of U.S. or multilateral intervention on the Assad regime,
that it could really give Assad the ammunition he needs to increase his
crackdown
Libya
vs. Syria
In Libya, half
the country suddenly breaking away, and you had safe areas almost immediately
within days.
Here, these
rebels in Syria, they don't have that. They do not have an army that is willing
to turn on its leader. It is still essentially loyal, especially at the higher
officer corps level, and we are seeing anecdotal notes of defections. some of
these defecting soldiers start to turn against their colleagues, but that is a
long, slow, incremental process,
sanction
the goal here
is: A, to change the regime's calculus, to reduce the crackdown but also to
induce defections among Assad's supporters, some of the wealthy merchant
families in Damascus and Aleppo, who may be sitting on the fence. If they're
feeling the economic pain, they may shift over to the opposition.
Free
Syrian Army
The Free
Syrian Army has been organized in refugee camps on the Turkish side of the
border. How big is it? How well-organized is it? Are they staging cross-border
raids? What's going on?
-
it's
a bit opaque. The Free Syrian Army is made up of defecting soldiers. Within
Syria, they are somewhat scattered. It's not easy for them to communicate. The
commander, Colonel Riyad al-Asad, is in a camp in Hatay Province in
southeastern Turkey. He's closely guarded.
geographical
scope of crackdown
very much inside
Syria. Even some of the people who have escaped to Lebanon or Turkey are very
worried about secret service. There have been reports of kidnappings.
Peter Kenyon,
foreign correspondent for NPR, joined us from Istanbul
Fred Wehrey
is a senior policy analyst with the Rand Corporation who specializes in Middle
East policy
