All Things Considered,
NPR
Iran Can Disrupt Key
Waterway, But For How Long?
Peter Kenyon, Feb. 14
2012
GUESTS: Adal Mirza, Mustafa
Alani, Theodore Karasik
PETER KENYON: So why
have world oil markets, despite some jittery moments, remained relatively calm
about the worst-case scenario for the Strait of Hormuz? Analysts say it's
simple. Few people believe Iran can actually deliver on its threat.
Mustafa Alani with the
Geneva-based Gulf Research Center says there are several factors weighing
against Iran's ability to close the strait. Hormuz is classified as an international waterway by the U.N.,
meaning international military action to
keep it open would not only be permitted, but expected. And as a practical
matter, Alani says Iran has already demonstrated during the Iran-Iraq War that
it can't keep the strait closed.
MUSTAFA ALANI: The
Iranian tried to close Hormuz eight years and they done everything possible,
from mining to the air force to navy to the speed boat, tried to close Hormuz
and to prevent the export of oil. They failed.
PETER KENYON: U.S. and
European military officials have also said they don't believe Iran can close
the strait for any length of time. Some analysts, however, say a temporary
closure may be possible.
THEODORE KARASIK: We
estimate that the strait could only be closed for maybe 10 days, maximum 15, depending
on what transpires.
PETER KENYON: Theodore
Karasik with the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai
says despite what he calls a robust international military presence near the
strait, Iran could cause problems with asymmetrical attacks.
