the week of May 21
Tension
Escalated over Alleged Imminent Nuclear Test
The
failed rocket launch on April 13 raised the question of whether
Kim Jong-un and his military would be tempted to recover by staging a larger
provocation, such as a new nuclear test. The recent commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri
Nuclear Test facility supported the contention that preparations were
continuing as if the test go-ahead decision had already been made. Another
commercial satellite photography
revealed that work on the experimental light water reactor at Yongbyon resumed
after months of inactivity.
Senior
American, Japanese and South Korean diplomats held talks in Seoul to
address concerns over potential provocations from the North. In the first
meeting since the failed launch, they warned that the
North would face swift and sure reaction if it conducted a nuclear test.
Pyongyang,
however, ruled out an
imminent nuclear weapon test, but vowed to expand its nuclear deterrence as
well as its sovereign right to launch satellites. In the same statement, it
also threatened to take
"countermeasures for self-defense" if the U.S. kept up hostile acts.
In furtherance of its plan to launch satellite, it is reportedly preparing for a second launch of
“Unha-3” -- the failed long-range rocket -- again at the Tongchang-ri launch
pad. It is also upgrading the
Musudan-ri launch site to handle larger rockets including space launch vehicles
and intercontinental missiles. Other nations are worried such
rockets could be developed to deliver nuclear weapons.
Regardless, assuming
that Pyongyang is ‘technically ready’
to conduct a third nuclear test and believing it may soon set off a nuclear
device, Seoul warned North Korea
of "grave consequences" and new international sanctions if the North
goes ahead with a nuclear test.
In
the meanwhile, the U.S. remains open to diplomatic solution. The top U.S. envoy
for North Korea, Glyn Davies, said that
Washington had no clues so far regarding whether North Korea would take further
provocative actions. (“I don’t have any particular … judgment … whether … they
will engage in another provocation”) While warning that a nuclear test would be
‘highly provocative,’
Washington will consider offering food aid to
Pyongyang if it reverses its missile and nuclear weapons programs – a gesture
to pursue talks, rather than confrontation.
