The Diane Rehm Show , May 11, 2012
MS. DIANE REHM
Thanks for joining us. I'm Diane Rehm. Twin
suicide bombings in Syria kill at least 55 and injure hundreds. Voters in
France and Greece oust incumbent leaders and Russia clamps down on protests of
Vladimir Putin's return to the presidency. Joining me to talk about the week's
top international stories on the Friday News Roundup, David Sanger of The New
York Times, Susan Glass of Foreign Policy magazine and Matt Frei of the UK's
Channel 4 News
REHM
I want ask you all about Vladimir Putin,
his reemergence, his reelection, his re-inauguration to the presidency did not
leave all of Russia happy
GLASSER
Vladimir Putin came right back in the style
to which he was accustomed .. he's the
guy who came to power in late 1999, total obscurity. … go out and have a war in Chechnya.
And I know both sides (Putin and Obama) are
trying to put a little bit of face-saving gloss in it, but the message was
crystal clear. That reset, over.
FREI
Apparently Obama only called Putin to
congratulate him on his reelection three days after the event, which is a
pregnant pause if ever there was one, and that was one of the reasons why Putin
then snubbed him by deciding that he couldn't come because he was too busy
organizing the cabinet.
===
===
Will Putin delete the reset?
CHARLES GRANT , April 5, 2012, The
International Herald Tribune
Vladimir
Putin's return to the Russian presidency is likely to cool relations with
Washington.
(conclusion)
In
February 2009, Vice President Joe Biden called for the reset button to be
pressed in the U.S.-Russia relationship, and for the next three years Presidents
Barack Obama and Dmitri Medvedev fostered a rapprochement between Washington
and Moscow. However, the message I
picked up from recent conversations in Moscow was that the reset is unlikely to survive Vladimir Putin's
return to the Russian presidency in May.
(both Washington and Moscow benefited from the reset)
Russia –
(i)
sharing civil nuclear power technology,
(ii)
help with its W.T.O. membership application, and
(iii)
an implicit understanding that the United States would not directly challenge
Russia's key interests in its backyard (for example, in Ukraine
The US -
(i),
men and supplies for the NATO mission in Afghanistan pass through Russia
(ii)
Moscow refused to deliver S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran
(iii)
Both parties were happy to sign the New Start agreement that will reduce their
strategic nuclear arsenals
(iv)
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973, .. military intervention in Libya. That
decision - opposed by Prime Minister Putin and much of the Russian security
establishment
The
reset brought benefits to both sides. Moscow obtained an accord on sharing
civil nuclear power technology, help with its W.T.O. membership application,
and an implicit understanding that the United States would not directly
challenge Russia's key interests in its backyard (for example, in Ukraine).
The
United States benefited from Moscow allowing men and supplies for the NATO
mission in Afghanistan to pass through Russia. Moscow refused to deliver S-300
surface-to-air missiles to Iran. Both parties were happy to sign the New Start
agreement that will reduce their strategic nuclear arsenals.
The
personal chemistry between Medvedev and Obama made a difference, as in March
2011, when Medvedev decided not to veto U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973,
which provided the legal justification for military intervention in Libya. That
decision - opposed by Prime Minister Putin and much of the Russian security
establishment - gave the United States and its allies the legal cover to
intervene militarily in Libya.
Putin, has a less benign view of
the United States
Putin, who has remained the preeminent
political figure in the Kremlin during the Medvedev presidency, allowed the
reset to happen, though he never used the word. He is less of a natural
diplomat than Medvedev, and has a less benign view of the United States.
During
the recent presidential election campaign in Russia, Putin resorted to tough
anti-American rhetoric, accusing opposition demonstrators of being paid by the
United States. Putin's recent newspaper articles also suggest that he sees U.S.
hegemony as a bigger problem than the rise of Chinese power.
Those
who have heard him talk in private say that Putin's suspicion and mistrust
of the United States is genuine, rather than mere electoral rhetoric.
thorny issues
human
rights
missile-defense
Syria
:
Russian
strategists view the turmoil in the Middle East almost exclusively in terms of
a conflict between Iran, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the U.S. on the
other
Syria
is Iran’s ally
Putin
opposes intervention in Syria
Syria
buys a lot of Russian arms, provides Russia with a naval base and helps to
prevent U.S.-Saudi dominance in the Middle East
Any arguments over human rights are likely
to cause further strains in the relationship. Within Russia, NGOs funded by
Western foundations are facing new forms of harassment.
Another
thorny issue is missile defense. Much of the Russian security establishment
appears to believe that America's plans for missile defense are aimed at
Russia, though the Americans say that Iran is the rationale. Russian strategists
worry that the American plans could require them to rethink the concept of
''mutually-assured destruction,'' although those plans, if fully implemented,
could not stop Russia obliterating the U.S. if it wished to do so. Medvedev has
threatened to respond to the U.S. scheme by deploying cruise missiles to
Kaliningrad and building Russian missile defense systems.
Syria
and Iran are causing great strains. Russian strategists view the turmoil
in the Middle East almost exclusively in terms of a conflict between Iran, on
the one hand, and Saudi Arabia and the U.S. on the other. Syria is not only
Iran's ally but also Russia's best friend in the region. Russia has friendly
relations with Iran, but not Saudi Arabia.
Many
Russians believe that geopolitics will drive the U.S. to use force against not
only Iran but also Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria. They believe that only
ill will come of the Arab Spring and predict that many countries will end up
with extreme Islamist regimes backed by Saudi Arabia.
Putin
is ardently opposed to any kind of humanitarian intervention in Syria. This
position is based partly on principle, notably a strong attachment to absolute
state sovereignty. His belief that the West abused the terms of Resolution 1973
to justify striking Libya has reinforced his hostility to Western intervention
elsewhere. The position is based partly on realpolitik: Syria buys a lot of
Russian arms, provides Russia with a naval base and helps to prevent U.S.-Saudi
dominance in the Middle East.
cooperation b/w Washington and Moscow
Afghanistan
- against the spread of Islamist fundamentalism ; on counter-narcotics operations
Afghanistan, by contrast, has fostered
cooperation between Washington and Moscow. Russia views the U.S. presence in
the country as a bulwark against the spread of Islamist fundamentalism, and
they work together on counter-narcotics operations. But many Russians believe
that when U.S. troops depart in 2014, the Americans will have fewer reasons to
collaborate with Moscow.
Cooler
relations with Russia would not likely harm Obama in the U.S. presidential
race, since Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican candidate, has attacked him
for being soft on Russia.
Why they should be more cooperative
The
U.S. needs Russia's help in the U.N. Security Council in tackling Iran and
other problems in the Middle East
stormy
relations with the West could hold back the modernization of the Russian
economy
In any case, both the next U.S. president
and Putin are likely to see good reasons to stop the U.S.-Russia relationship
turning hostile. The U.S. needs Russia's help in the U.N. Security Council in
tackling Iran and other problems in the Middle East. And Putin knows that
stormy relations with the West could hold back the modernization of the Russian
economy.
But
it won't be the reset, or the cordiality, that Obama had with Medvedev.
