Is it too late for Serbia to join the EU?
Joshua Keating Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Boris Tadic makes it clear that with Ratko Mladic now heading to the Hague, it's time for Brussels to live up to its side of the implicit deal and put Serbia on the path to EU membership:
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“I simply ask the EU to fulfill its part. We fulfilled our part and we will continue to do so,'' said the Serbian President.
“No one has the right any more to place Serbia on the pillar of shame,'' Tadi? emphasized, adding that “no one has the right to say that this country is without the rule of law, and no one can say that we are a nation which is unable to face its past.''
Tadi? said that Serbia “should be given the same path to EU membership accorded to another former Yugoslav republic, Croatia.“
“We are demanding that Serbia, just like Croatia, simultaneously be given the date for the start of the entry talks and not just the candidate status.
When I say we demand I mean we deserve it,'' Tadi? underscored. “There are no obstacles left,'' Tadi? noted, adding that “stopping Serbia would be purely political.“
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It's not quite true that there are no obstacles left. There's still the nagging issues of Kosovo: it's hard to imagine that Serbia could get admitted while still claiming a territory that's recognized as a sovereign state by the rest of the EU. The relatively tame backlash from Serbian nationalists to the Mladic arrest is probably nothing compared to what Tadic would face if he gave up Serbia's historical claim to Kosovo.
Then there are factors completely beyond Serbia's control:
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Neighbouring Croatia is in the closing stages of its six-year negotiation to join the EU.
Just as it reaches closure the goalposts are being moved by EU governments and new conditions are being introduced.
France, Germany, the Netherlands and several others are suffering from a chronic case of "enlargement fatigue" – fed up with an ever-growing EU.
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After the past two years, it shouldn't be surprising if the Western European public starts to view new members -- however, unfairly -- less as potential new economic partners and more as future bailouts. If Mladic had been arrested along with Radovan Karadzic back in 2008, the calculus might be very different now.
Tadic is right about one thing, the ball is now in the EU's court. If the Mladic arrest doesn't produce tangible results for Serbia, it will be a blow to the often-heard argument that membership is an effective carrot that can be used to prod reluctant governments into progress on human rights and economic reform. As Bronwyn Lo writes in the Australian, they're likely paying close attention in Ankara.
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Biggest barrier to accession talks is removed, but Kosovo and hesitance within EU over expansion may haunt Boris Tadic
Ian Traynor, Thursday 26 May 2011
Boris Tadic, the Serbian president, has set Serbia on the road to EU membership by ordering the arrest of Ratko Mladic
The arrest of Ratko Mladic, Europe's most wanted war crimes suspect, is a potentially transformational step by President Boris Tadic for Serbia's international prospects.
It means Serbia has put its lingering status as an international pariah behind it and opened the path to a future of integration in the community of European democracies.
Tadic has dispersed a cloud over Belgrade. There had been longstanding doubts that the Serbian government would track down the genocide suspect, regarded as a hero by many in Serbia and supported by influential networks in the security apparatus.
The west has pinned its hopes on Tadic, who has been facing unrest on the streets of Belgrade and the threat of being unseated by a strengthening nationalist opposition. He will be looking for a payoff in the form of a prompt advance on the road to EU membership.
By coincidence, as the arrest was being announced the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, was in Belgrade pressing Tadic to be more conciliatory in talks with the leadership of Kosovo, whose independence Tadic will not recognise.
The EU will be under strong pressure to reward Belgrade and agree to open negotiations this year on membership.
The Dutch have tied their endorsement of negotiations on Serbia to the assessment of Serge Brammertz, chief prosecutor at the Yugoslav war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Ironically, just as Serbian special forces were raiding the cottage where Mladic was sleeping, Brammertz's report to the UN was leaked. It damned Belgrade for ignoring tribunal requests and accused it of not being serious in pursuing Mladic
There remains one suspect at large wanted by The Hague: Goran Hadzic, a leader of the Croatian Serbs in the early 1990s. But in arresting the big three – Slobodan Milosevic, the late Serbian president; Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb wartime political leader currently on trial; and now Mladic – – Belgrade has puts itself beyond reproach on the war crimes issue.
But the dividend could quickly be lost if Brussels fails to deliver on its side of the bargain. Neighbouring Croatia is in the closing stages of its six-year negotiation to join the EU. Just as it reaches closure the goalposts are being moved by EU governments and new conditions are being introduced. France, Germany, the Netherlands and several others are suffering from a chronic case of "enlargement fatigue" – fed up with an ever-growing EU.
If Europe does not deliver on its promises the result in the Balkans will be bitterness, setbacks for democrats who offered their publics "Europe" only to be shunned, and a boost for nationalists and populists.
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Backlash from Serbian nationalist to the arrest is nothing compared to what Tadic would face if he gave up Serbia’s historic claim to Kosovo
Enlargement fatigue
