13 June 2011
Q&A: South China Sea dispute
Rival countries have squabbled over territory in the South China Sea for centuries - but a recent upsurge in tension has sparked concern that the area is becoming a flashpoint with global consequences.
What is the argument about?
It is a dispute over territory and sovereignty over ocean areas and the Paracels and the Spratlys - two island chains claimed in whole or in part by a number of countries. Alongside the fully fledged islands, there are dozens of uninhabited rocky outcrops, atolls, sandbanks and reefs.
Who claims what?
China claims by far the largest portion of territory - an area stretching hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan. Beijing has said its rights to the area come from 2,000 years of history, where the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation.
In 1947 China issued a map detailing its claims. It shows the two island groups as falling entirely within its territory. Those claims are mirrored by Taiwan, because the island considers itself the Republic of China and has the same territorial claims.
Vietnam hotly disputes China's historical account, saying China never claimed sovereignty over the islands until the 1940s. Vietnam says both island chains are entirely within its territory. It says it has actively ruled over both the Paracels and the Spratlys since the 17th Century - and has the documents to prove it.
The other major claimant in the area is the Philippines, which invokes its geographical proximity to the Spratly Islands as the main basis of its claim for part of the grouping.
Malaysia and Brunei also lay claim to territory in the South China Sea that they say falls within their economic exclusion zones, as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982. Brunei does not claim any of the disputed islands, but Malaysia claims a small number of islands in the Spratlys.
Why are so many countries so keen?
The Paracels and the Spratlys may have vast reserves of natural resources around them. There has been little detailed exploration of the area, so estimates are largely extrapolated from the mineral wealth of neighbouring areas.
Chinese officials have given the most optimistic estimates of resource wealth in the area. According to figures quoted by the US Energy Information Administration, one Chinese estimate puts possible oil reserves as high as 213 billion barrels - 10 times the proven reserves of the US. But American scientists have estimated the amount of oil at 28 billion barrels.
According to the EIA, the real wealth of the area may well be natural gas reserves. Estimates say the area holds about 900 trillion cubic ft (25 trillion cubic m) - the same as the proven reserves of Qatar.
The area is also one of the region's main shipping lanes, and a fishing ground that supplies the livelihoods of thousands of people.
How much trouble does the dispute cause?
The most serious trouble in recent decades has flared between Vietnam and China. The Chinese seized the Paracels from Vietnam in 1974, killing several Vietnamese troops. In 1988 the two sides clashed in the Spratlys, when Vietnam again came off worse, losing about 70 sailors.
The Philippines has also been involved in a number of minor skirmishes with Chinese, Vietnamese and Malaysian forces.
The most recent upsurge in tension has coincided with more muscular posturing from China. Beijing officials have issued a number of strongly worded statements, including warning their rivals to stop any mineral exploration in the area.
The Philippines has accused China of building up its military presence in the Spratlys. And unverified claims that the Chinese navy deliberately sabotaged two Vietnamese exploration operations has led to large anti-China protests on the streets of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
Vietnam has held live-fire exercises off its coast - an action that will be seen as a gross provocation by Beijing.
Is anyone trying to resolve the row?
Agreements such as the UN's 1982 convention appeared to lay the framework for a solution. But in practice, the convention led to more overlapping claims, and did nothing to deter China and Vietnam in pressing their historical claims.
Both the Philippines and Vietnam have made bilateral agreements with China on codes of conduct in the area. But the agreements have made little difference.
The regional grouping Asean - whose membership includes all of the main players in the South China Sea dispute except China and Taiwan - concluded a code of conduct deal with China in 2002.
Under the agreement, the countries agreed to "resolve their territorial and jurisdictional disputes by peaceful means, without resorting to the threat or use of force, through friendly consultations and negotiations".
But recent events suggest that Vietnam and China at least have failed to stick to the spirit of that agreement.
Over the years, China has tended to favour arrangements negotiated behind closed doors with the individual leaders of other countries. But the other countries have pushed for international mediation.
So in July 2010, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became involved in the debate and called for a binding code of conduct, China was not pleased. The Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed her suggestion as an attack on China.
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Vietnam holds live-fire exercises as territorial dispute with China escalates
Beijing warns other regional powers not to become involved in row over South China Sea islands and surrounding waters
China has warned other countries not to become involved in an escalating sea border dispute with Vietnam that reflects concern over Beijing's increasing international power and confidence.
Experts say the stand-off between China and Vietnam - two of the six powers laying claim to a number of islands and their surrounding waters in the South China Sea - is the worst for more than two decades. Vietnam held live-fire exercises off its coast on Monday, in what analysts said was a response without precedent.
The complex dispute over sovereignty in the 1.2m square miles of sea has been simmering for decades, but has grown increasingly fractious in the past few years. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan also lay claim to parts of the sea.
(oil reserves, natural gas reserves, main shipping lanes, a fishing ground)
As much as a third of the world's trade passes through the Malacca Strait. Countries are also competing to tap the sea's energy resources and exploit its fish stocks.
(bilateral approach by China vs. multilateral approach by the rest five States and the U.S.)
Last year, foreign ministers lined up to attack China's stance at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) regional forum, in what the Chinese regarded as a Washington-led ambush. The US said it had a national security interest in a peaceful resolution and that it supported a collective solution. Beijing insists the issue should be handled through bilateral deals.
"In a sense [the dispute] has become more complicated because it has become conflated with Sino-US competition in south-east Asia," said Dr Ian Storey, of the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
(The Philippines) Benigno Aquino, president of the Philippines – which has also accused China of intruding into its waters – told a press conference on Tuesday: "Perhaps the presence of our treaty partner, which is the United States of America, ensures that all of us will have freedom of navigation, will conform to international law."
(the U.S.) Washington has played down the issue this year, with both sides seeking to improve relations after 2010's bilateral tensions.
(China) China's foreign ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, told a news conference: "We hope countries not related to the disputes over the South China Sea will respect the efforts of directly related countries to resolve the issue through direct negotiations." In an apparent reference to Vietnam, he added: "Some country took unilateral actions to impair China's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests [and] released groundless and irresponsible remarks with the attempt to expand and complicate the dispute over the South China Sea." Hong added that China would not use force to resolve disputes.
(Vietnam) Vietnam alleges that Chinese boats cut a cable from a seismic survey boat off its coast in late May and impeded another last week, while China accuses Vietnam of illegally entering its waters.
Storey warned in a paper two years ago that rivalries were escalating again after easing in the first half of the last decade.
"Failure to address rising tensions could lead to greater regional instability, disruptions to global trade and economic development, environmental degradation and, worst-case scenario, military confrontation," he and his co-author concluded.
Storey said that China saw itself as the aggrieved party, but added: "Despite the rhetoric about its peaceful rise and not seeking hegemony, it is seen that China is becoming more assertive and, in the last few months, aggressive."
Vietnam had reacted with unprecedented stridency by holding the live-fire drill and issuing a decree on the terms of military service, he added. "The increasing frequency of incidents at sea raises the risk of an armed confrontation," said Storey, adding that tensions were at their highest point since a clash in 1988 in which around 70 Vietnamese personnel were killed.
The growing strength of China's navy has also contributed to the concerns of regional powers. It is due to hold naval drills in the western Pacific and official media outlets have suggested it may launch its first aircraft carrier within months, a year earlier than expected.
The renewed tensions come after a Chinese diplomatic charm offensive apparently aimed at undoing the damage from last year's row.
(internal problem in China)
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt of the International Crisis Group said: "[China has] seven central government agencies, the People's Liberation Army Navy, provincial governments and state-owned enterprises who all have their own interests and claims in the disputed waters. Without very solid inter-agency co-ordination, the multitude of players often make case-by-case policy decisions on the ground in accordance with their individual priorities.
"Some of the harder-line actors can justify their actions with the voices of strident nationalism, contributing to a heated domestic environment and marginalising more moderate voices."
