Showing posts with label WSJ. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WSJ. Show all posts

Chevron v. Ecuador

WSL July 31, 2008,

Jungle Litigation: A Look at Chevron’s Ecuadorian Court Battle . . .

By Dan Slater

Since we’ve been doing so much globe-trotting today, let’s keep it going and pay a visit to South America. TheAmerican Lawyer just put out a story that takes us “20 miles south of the jungle territory patrolled by Colombian leftist guerrillas” to the “ramshackle” Ecuadorean city ofLago Agrio. It is there, reports AmLaw, “in a dilapidated courthouse,” that a Jones Day team led by Thomas Cullen Jr. is representing Chevron in its battle with 30,000 residents of Ecuador’s Amazon Basin, known as theAmazon Defense Coalition, whose Web address is “www.texacotoxico.org.”

The ADC is represented by by Philadelphia plaintiffs firmKohn Swift & Graf, and a solo practitioner in Ecuador, Pablo Fajardo, who was profiled in this Vanity Fair article.

The group reportedly hopes to hold Chevron accountable for alleged environmental abuses committed by Texaco, which Chevron bought for $35 billion in 2001. Texaco spent 30 years in the region, pumping billions of gallons of oil hundreds of miles west over the Andes to Ecuador’s port cities for shipment to the U.S. (Click here for a past AmLaw feature on the case — Aguinda v. Texaco.)

But the reason for AmLaw’s follow-up, apparently, is a recent Newsweek piece about the case entitled “A $16 Billion Problem.” (That’s how much Chevron might have to cough up.) “The ultimate issue here is Ecuador has mistreated a U.S. company,” Newsweek quotes one unidentified Chevron lobbyist as saying. “We can’t let little countries screw around with big companies like this — companies that have made big investments around the world.”

Newsweek reports that after plaintiffs attorney Steven Donziger, of counsel at New York’sPerlmutter & Gimpel, made a presentation to Barack Obama several years ago, the senator co-wrote a letter with Democratic senator Patrick Leahy to U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman, urging Portman to allow the plaintiffs to have “their day in court.” An Obama spokesperson confirmed to Newsweek that Obama’s position on the matter remains the same

WSJ , SEPTEMBER 15, 2008 ,

Chevron Lawyers Indicted in Connection with Ecuador Case

By Dan Slater

In July we told you about some jungle litigation in Ecuador that takes us, according to an AmLaw report, “20 miles south of the jungle territory patrolled by Colombian leftist guerrillas” to the “ramshackle” city of Lago Agrio. Some 30,000 residents of Ecuador’s Amazon Basin, known collectively as the Amazon Defense Coalition, hopes to hold Chevron accountable for alleged environmental abuses committed by Texaco, which Chevron bought in 2001.

On Friday, reports AmLaw, Chevron’s legal worries in Ecuador grew when in-house lawyer Ricardo Reis Veiga and outside counsel Rodrigo Perez Pallares were accused of being part of a conspiracy to fraudulently certify that Texaco had completed the cleanup of more than 100 mines in the Ecuadorean rainforest in the 1990s. The government released Chevron from liability on the basis of those certifications.

“The politically motivated indictments mark a renewal of the Ecuadorean state’s attempts to disavow contractual obligations owed to Chevron from contracts signed in 1995 and 1998,” Chevron said in a statement. “Recent events in Ecuador leave no doubt that there is improper collaboration between the government and plaintiffs lawyers [in the civil case]. ”

A lawyer for the Republic of Ecuador, C. MacNeil Mitchell of Winston & Strawn, told The Am Law Daily that the government is not involved in the environmental tort litigation — and that Chevron’s attempt to link the indictments to the environmental suit is part of the company’s strategy to discredit the Ecuadorean courts.

“Chevron isn’t stupid,” said Mitchell. “We may look at individual things they do and say, ‘That doesn’t make sense.’ But they have an overall game plan. They know there’s going to be a big judgment against them in Ecuador. They want to avoid paying it. One way to do that is by saying the Ecuadorean system is corrupt and their rights were trampled.”

New York lawyer Stephen Donziger and Philadelphia plaintiffs firm Kohn Swift & Graf are handling the litigation for the ADC. A Jones Day team led by Thomas Cullen Jr. is repping Chevron in Ecuador.

WSJ , JULY 20, 2009 ,

Chevron Looks For Home-Field Advantage In Ecuador Fight

By Amir Efrati

What’s the strategy of a company when it’s pretty sure it’s going to lose a high-profile lawsuit overseas? That’s the dilemma facing Chevron in its long-running legal battle in Ecuador, where residents of the country’s oil-producing Amazonian rainforest are suing the oil giant for environmental contamination of their land. (LB coverage here and here.)

An expert appointed by the Ecuadorian court has recommended the judge award the plaintiffs, who filed suit in 1993, $27 billion in damages. That would be the biggest environment judgment against an oil firm to date. Of course, after judgment comes the hard part: collection.

However, according to today’s WSJ, the Ecuadorians can’t seize any assets from Chevron in their country because the original defendant in the case, Texaco, which Chevron bought in 2001, stopped doing business there in 1990. So they’ll have to take the fight to the U.S.

Chevron, which expects to lose the case in Ecuador, has been telling its shareholders it doesn’t expect to be forced to pay any judgment. “We’re not paying and we’re going to fight this for years if not decades into the future,” the company told WSJ.

The company’s legal strategy: convince a U.S. judge it didn’t get a fair trial in Ecuador, where the country’s president supported the plaintiffs. Legal experts say that won’t be easy, according to WSJ. Complicating matters is the fact that the suit was initially filed in the U.S. and Texaco fought hard to move it to Ecuador.

Some shareholders have urged the company to settle, but the company told WSJ it won’t be “bullied.”

WSJ , SEPTEMBER 1, 2009 ,

Chevron, Through Videos, Alleges Corruption in Ecuador Case

When Chevron Corp. landed videos purportedly showing an Ecuadorean judge saying he’d already decided to rule against the company in a long-running environmental legal battle, it didn’t just use the videos to try to disqualify the judge, it went viral. The company recently put the videos up on its Web site, on YouTube, and made them the centerpiece of a public-relations push.

Will it pay off? Hard to tell. But for now, the videos have put the judge and the plaintiffs on the defensive. In an interview with the WSJ, Judge Juan Núñez denied making the statements but said he had met with the two businessmen who appear in the video. “I have never said that I will dictate a ruling in favor nor against Chevron nor the plaintiffs,” Núñez said. “What I have said is that the sentence could be released in October or November or as late as January 2010.” Click here for a story from the American Lawyer; here for a story from the Washington Post.

The backstory: A group of indigenous residents of the country’s Amazon basin claims that Chevron should pay for pollution caused by the oil operations of Texaco, which Chevron acquired in 2001. Chevron says Ecuador released it from liabilities after a clean-up by the company.

The company claims the two recordings of a total of three meetings show an alleged representative of the country’s ruling party seeking $3 million in bribes in return for handing out “environmental remediation contracts” to two businessmen after a verdict is handed down by Judge Núñez later this year. Of that sum, one million would go to Núñez, one million to “the presidency” and another one million to plaintiffs in the case.

According to Chevron, the recordings were made between May and June of this year. The judge’s statements show bias and he should be “disqualified from the case,” Charles James, a Chevron executive vice president, said in an interview.

The judge is still accepting evidence in the case. On the video, he agrees with the two men when they state Chevron is culpable and he will act in October or November.

Alexis Mera, subsecretary for judicial affairs in the office of President Rafael Correa, raised questions about Chevron’s role in the videos, and said the government has asked the office of the prosecutor to review them. “Chevron, through its lawyers, is benefiting from a crime of intercepting conversations without authorization, with the aim of damaging Ecuador,” Mr. Mera said.

The lawyers don’t have anything to do with the alleged video or bribe,” said Julio Prieto, a lawyer for the plaintiffs in Ecuador. “I believe that it is a forged video and also fabricated to seek to implicate the government in acts against the law.”

The company said it has taken “reasonable steps” to verify the videos are legitimate.

The Wall Street Journal , September 24, 2009 Thursday ,

Corporate News: Chevron Files Suit Against Ecuador --- Looking to Protect Itself in Longtime Battle, Oil Giant Seeks Aid Through Trade Pact

By Ben Casselman and Angel Gonzalez

Chevron Corp. is stepping up its offensive in its long-running legal battle in Ecuador, suing Ecuador's government under international trade law.

Chevron is the defendant in a multibillion-dollar lawsuit that seeks to hold the company responsible for environmental damage allegedly caused by Texaco Inc., which Chevron bought in 2001. Chevron has denied the allegations.

Seeking to protect itself from what it says is likely to be an adverse ruling in Ecuador, the California-based oil giant said Wednesday it had filed suit under the terms of a 1997 trade pact between the U.S. and Ecuador. The suit amounts to a request for arbitration through a process set up by the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law to adjudicate disagreements.

The arbitration process is separate from the original lawsuit, which will continue. But under its pact with the U.S., Ecuador must accept the arbitrators' rulings as binding under international law.

In its filing, Chevron argues Ecuador's government is responsible for any environmental damage and should pay any penalties assessed in the lawsuit, which could total $27 billion, according to a court-appointed expert. Chevron also asks that arbitrators force Ecuador's government to pay the company's legal fees and to award "moral damages" due to the government's alleged interference in the case, intimidation of Chevron representatives and other "outrageous and illegal conduct."

The move seeks to capitalize on the release last month of videos that Chevron says reveal a bribery scheme possibly involving the Ecuadorean judge who has been overseeing the lawsuit. Ecuador says it is investigating Chevron's allegations, as well as any potential involvement by Chevron in the scheme. The judge, who has sought to recuse himself from the case, has denied any wrongdoing, and the videos don't show him accepting or soliciting a bribe. On Tuesday, a local court ruled that the judge's withdrawal petition was "unfounded" and ordered him to stay in the case.

Chevron believes the controversy has given new weight to its claim that it cannot get a fair trial in Ecuador.

"We have believed for some time that it would be impossible for Chevron to get a fair hearing in Ecuador," Chevron General Counsel R. Hewitt Pate said.

Eric Bloom, a U.S. attorney representing Ecuador in the dispute, said Chevron has been trying to discredit Ecuador's judicial system for years, and he questioned the videos' authenticity.

"Chevron either got very, very lucky on the eve of a verdict and actually tripped across a legitimate concern, or they helped to stage-manage a fictitious event," Mr. Bloom said. "Both possibilities have to be investigated."

Chevron has denied doctoring the videos or participating in the scheme and has said it took steps to verify the videos' authenticity.

Steven Donziger, an attorney for the plaintiffs in the original lawsuit, said the filing will have "minimal impact" on his case, but he said it is a sign Chevron is becoming desperate.

The plaintiffs in the lawsuit couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Chevron's decision to seek international arbitration is the latest example of the company's increasingly aggressive strategy in the case, which includes a Web site to rebut plaintiffs' claims and an effort to lobby Congress to revoke Ecuador's trade privileges because of the government's alleged interference in the dispute.

Since Chevron has almost no assets in Ecuador, the plaintiffs will have to seek enforcement of any ruling in their favor in the U.S. or another country where Chevron operates.

Separately, the international arbitration process could take years. In its arbitration filing, Chevron claims that by allowing the lawsuit to go forward, the Ecuadorean government is violating a 1998 agreement that released the U.S. company from environmental liability in return for a $40 million cleanup paid for by Texaco.

The plaintiffs, a group of Ecuadorean residents, argue their case has nothing to do with the Ecuadorean government, so the agreement doesn't apply to their lawsuit. Ecuador's government says it has no control over the judicial process, although Chevron has argued the Ecuadorean judiciary is heavily influenced by President Rafael Correa.

If arbitrators reject Chevron's argument, it could make it harder for the company to fight enforcement of an adverse ruling. But if arbitrators agree that Chevron has no liability, legal experts said, it will be very difficult for plaintiffs to collect on any damages outside Ecuador.

Corporations have increasingly turned to international arbitrators in recent years to resolve disputes with governments. Companies often see the arbitration process as fairer than local courts.

Opinio Juris, September 25th, 2009 ,

Chevron Strikes Back Against Ecuador

by Julian Ku

I’ve only been vaguely aware of the ongoing battle between Chevron and Ecuador. Ecuador courts are currently entertaining an enormous lawsuit against Chevron, but Chevron has really taken the offensive by releasing videos suggesting that the Ecuadorian judge has been accepting bribes. And in its latest salvo, Chevron has filed an investor-state claim under the United States- Ecuador Bilateral Investment Treaty (I think it is 1993 but the WSJ says there is a 1997 one). In any event, it is a novel claim since it seeks to flip all liability for damages back to the government of Ecuador, and even seeks moral damages.

This could be a tremendous case, given its unusual facts. Offhand, it actually resembles Loewen, which challenged a domestic court proceeding (in the United States) as an effective expropriation and unfair and inequitable treatment. It seems like a good move by Chevron, in any event, since it keeps Ecuador on the defensive.

Luke Peterson offers a detailed analysis of Chevron’s request for arbitration here: http://kluwerarbitrationblog.com/

Thanks for the link Roger. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the Chevron claim (as well as another massive arbitration recently threatened by Cemex against the USA) is that, contrary to the Loewen case, the claimants are not even waiting for domestic legal proceedings to be resolved. Rather, the claimants are going to international arbitration in a proactive attempt to get indemnification against any unfavourable results in lower courts. As someone who makes his living tracking and reporting on these cases, this seems like a relatively brave new world to me.

Also, on the date of the US-Ecuador BIT, the confusion arises because the treaty was signed in 1993, but ratified in 1997.

Luke Eric Peterson, Editor
InvestmentArbitrationReporter.com

Opinio Juris , April 1, 2010 -- Ecuador Rejects Arbitration Award

Chevron Wins Round One Against Ecuador

by Julian Ku

This is just the first round of a potentially huge investor-state arbitration claim filed by Chevron against Ecuador. $700 million now, but up to $27 billion later. (For some background, see here and here about a federal court’s refusal to stay one of the arbitration proceedings.).

Chevron Corp (CVX.N) won a three-year-old arbitration fight against Ecuador over a commercial dispute as it battles the country separately over an environmental claim that may result in $27 billion in damages against the company.

An arbitration panel ruled on Tuesday that Ecuador’s courts violated international law by delaying rulings on commercial disputes between the U.S. oil company and Ecuador’s government, and awarded Chevron $700 million.

The arbitration panel partially resolved seven claims that Texaco, bought by Chevron in 2001, filed in Ecuador from 1991 to 1993, Chevron said. The panel found that the courts had breached a U.S.-Ecuador treaty by not ruling on the cases.

WSJ , APRIL 5, 2010,

Misspelling Leads to Big Discovery in Chevron/Ecuador Case

By Ashby Jones

Note to expert witnesses: If someone else is going to file allegedly fraudulent reports in a lawsuit in your name, for heaven’s sake, make sure they spell your name right.

It might sound like common sense. But the misspelling of an expert’s name in a multibillion-dollar environmental lawsuit filed against Chevron is what tipped off Chevron’s lawyers to the fact that the reports may have been fudged, a fact that has now been conceded by the expert himself. Click here for the WSJ story, by Ben Casselman and Angel Gonzalez. Click here, here andhere for earlier LB posts on the Chevron case.

The disclosure comes in the midst of a huge lawsuit accusing Chevron of causing widespread environmental damage in the Ecuadorean rain forest. In 2004, the plaintiffs hired an American biologist named Charles Calmbacher to help oversee soil and water tests in Ecuador.

Reports signed by Calmbacher showed high levels of toxins at two sites and estimated the contamination would cost more than $40 million to clean up at these sites alone.

But in a sworn deposition last week, Calmbacher said he didn’t write the reports submitted over his signature, which said the sites were highly polluted and needed remediation.

“I concluded that I did not see significant contamination that posed immediate threat to the environment or to humans or wildlife around it,” Calmbacher said, according to a transcript provided by Chevron.

Steven Donziger, a New York-based attorney for the plaintiffs said Calmbacher’s reports were only a small part of the overall case, and that other tests have shown contamination at dozens of sites. (Click here for a story about Donziger and the case published last September, from the American Lawyer.)

Chevron has said it expects to lose the case in Ecuador but plans to challenge enforcement of any ruling in the U.S., where it is the second-largest oil company by revenue.

Now, back to the allegedly forged signature. Gibson Dunn’s Andrea Neuman, the Chevron lawyer who conducted the deposition, said Chevron became suspicious after Calmbacher apparently misspelled his own name in letters to the Ecuadorean court asking for an extension in filing his reports.

In his deposition, Calmbacher said he had flown back to the U.S. early due to illness, and had therefore sent pre-signed pages back to Ecuador with the understanding his findings would be printed over his signature. But he said the reports that were filed didn’t reflect his conclusions.

He said he never saw the final version of the reports that were submitted to the court until he was shown them during the deposition.

“I did not reach these conclusions and I did not write this report,” he said in the deposition

Judge Upholds Chevron-Ecuador Arbitration

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703625304575115730676032238.html

NEW YORK—A U.S. judge declined Thursday to stay an international arbitration in a dispute between Ecuador's government and Chevron Corp. over who should pay for alleged environmental damages in the country's Amazon region.

In a ruling from the bench, U.S. District Judge Leonard B. Sand in Manhattan said Chevron's claim that Ecuador's government has infringed on its right to due process in a $27 billion environmental lawsuit there is a claim that can be arbitrated.

As a result, "a stay of arbitration is inappropriate," the judge said.

The arbitration panel has been chosen, but it's unclear how quickly an arbitration could be heard. The timing and scope of the arbitration would be up to the panel, the judge said.

Ecuador filed a lawsuit against Chevron in U.S. District Court in Manhattan in December, seeking to stop an arbitration by Chevron under the rules of the U.N. Commission on International Trade Law, or Uncitral.

Chevron had requested international arbitration in September, claiming Ecuador's government was interfering in a long-running lawsuit brought by local indigenous groups over alleged environmental damage caused by Texaco Inc. and is violating a prior agreement releasing Texaco from environmental claims. Chevron acquired Texaco in 2001.

Ecuador's government has denied any interference.

C. MacNeil Mitchell, a lawyer for Ecuador, said the republic is considering whether to appeal the decision.

Kent Robertson, a Chevron spokesman, said the judge's ruling was an important development in its efforts to pursue arbitration.

The arbitration panel "is one of the few bodies that can compel Ecuador to do the right thing and clean up the Amazon," Mr. Robertson said. "With today's decision, we are one step closer to making that a reality."

Jonathan S. Abady, a lawyer for the indigenous groups, called the move for arbitration a "collateral attack" on its litigation, designed to decide the issues at the heart of their case without the plaintiffs having a say.

The indigenous groups have argued in part that the remediation agreement with Ecuador's government doesn't release Chevron from environmental claims in lawsuits by third parties, just claims by that country's government.

The lawsuit by the indigenous groups, known as the Lago Agrio case, is continuing in Ecuador. A new judge was appointed in Ecuador in the Lago Agrio case last month.

Another Ecuadorean judge recused himself last year after Chevron released videos that the company claims show improper dealings by the judge.

The case was originally brought in U.S. District Court in Manhattan in 1993, but the court found the case should be heard in Ecuador. The indigenous groups brought their suit in Ecuador in 2003.

Take Kim to Court

OPINION ASIA | JUNE 3, 2010

Take Kim to Court
Sinking the Cheonan was a war crime. There would be several advantages to prosecuting it as such.

By JARED GENSER

It was a quiet night aboard the South Korean naval warship Cheonan on March 26 as it patrolled the Yellow Sea south of the Northern Limit Line, the de facto boundary dividing North and South Korea. Suddenly a strong underwater explosion, later determined to have been the detonation of a North Korean homing torpedo, split the ship in two. Within five minutes, the ship had sunk, killing 46 of its crew and sparking a new threat of war on the Korean peninsula.

Since then, the international community has been scrambling to defuse tensions, coordinate a response, and understand why North Korean leader Kim Jong Il would launch this unprovoked attack. What has been missing in the assessment of options so far, however, is the prospect that Kim may have exposed himself for the first time to international justice. There is, I believe, a prima facie case for referring the sinking of the Cheonan to the International Criminal Court for investigation and prosecution of those who carried out and ordered the attack.

The crux of the crime itself is straightforward. One of the war crimes that can be prosecuted in the ICC is the crime of "killing . . . treacherously individuals belonging to the hostile nation or army." Merely conducting a sneak attack itself is not considered treachery under the laws of war, as surprise is often used in wartime. What was actually "treacherous" is that North Korea signed the 1953 armistice and committed unequivocally to "order and enforce a complete cessation of hostilities."

In this case, North Korea invited the confidence of South Korea that the armistice was in force—despite the occasional minor skirmish here and there over the years—which led the South Korean navy to not be patrolling on high alert. That confidence was intentionally betrayed to sink the vessel and kill its crew. The laws of war make very clear that while an armistice merely suspends active fighting and can indeed be broken, notice must be provided to the other side first.

With regard to jurisdiction, the incident took place in South Korean territorial waters and against a South Korean ship. Either of these facts alone–given that North Korea would dispute the first point—gives the court jurisdiction to hear a complaint because South Korea is a party to the Rome Statute establishing the Court.

All that is required at this point to trigger an investigation would be for a party to the Rome Statute to refer the situation to the prosecutor for investigation. Beyond South Korea, that could include any of more than 100 countries around the world. Alternatively, the Court's creative and relentless prosecutor, Argentine lawyer Luis Moreno Ocampo, could decide to take up the situation on his own.

That said, this would not necessarily be an easy course to follow. Even if the situation is taken up by the prosecutor, to indict anyone responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan would require substantial evidence. While the report on the sinking says the evidence for North Korean culpability is conclusive, the court only prosecutes individuals and not countries. Thus, further intelligence to determine who is actually responsible and following those orders up the chain of command would be required.

Then there's the time factor. All the court's investigations up to now have taken years to complete. And even if one could ultimately procure the evidence to issue an arrest warrant for Kim, it would be highly unlikely that he could be easily apprehended, given his limited travel outside North Korea.

Yet despite all the obstacles, this remains a desirable course to pursue for several reasons. Beginning such an investigation could mark a critical rhetorical turning point in labeling Kim as an international criminal, rather than merely as a dictator. Such a label is past due. While global focus on North Korea in recent years has been primarily on its nuclear weapons program, the daily reality for the people of the country is appalling. Starvation is widespread and the Kim regime maintains a vast gulag system holding some 200,000 political prisoners.

Beyond the sinking of the Cheonan, there is little doubt that Kim is also guilty of committing crimes against humanity against his own people. Any measure that focuses attention on this aspect of his character would be a needed reality check on the tendency to treat him merely as a strong-willed, if unpredictable and cunning, dictator to be negotiated with by the international community.

Kim is ailing and may well die of natural causes in the next few years before facing any sort of justice. But given the profound suffering of the North Korean people and his recent actions against South Korea, triggering an investigation before the International Criminal Court could drive a wedge between Kim and any elements of his government that care about the damage his conduct has caused the country and its people. If this hastens his demise even a little, that can only benefit the North Korean people and the world.

Mr. Genser is an international lawyer in Washington, D.C. who has previously taught at the University of Michigan and University of Pennsylvania law schools.
====================

during armed conflict ? Defcon level, the issue of blockade,
assuming it is, is it conflict of international character or not of international ?

crime against humanity ... broad interpretation ? Kim is obviously under-qualified leader. Worst national policy is equivalent to commission of crime ?

after the catastrophe of cyclone, the Burmese government denied foreign humanitarian aid, which led to severe suffering in the vulnerable in Burma. Some argue that R2P can kick in. but according to 2005 WSO, R2P is limited to mass atrocities like war crimes, crime against humanity, and genocide. It indicates that the situation in Burma does not fit into the mass atrocities in terms of international criminal law. It is not easy to give humanitarian aid to N. Korea. probably the situation in N.Korea is more severe, nevertheless maybe there is no qualitative difference. only quantitative difference.

and regarding jurisdiction, whether S. Korea is a party to the Rome Statute might not be important if China agree to referring the situation to the ICC.
the torpedo looks like jus ad bellum rather then jus in bello since there was no armed conflict, only skirmish infrequently
if Rome Statute had act of aggression provision, it would kick in



How to Handle North Korea

How to Handle North Korea The Wall Street Journal May 28, 2010 Friday

Copyright 2010 Factiva ®, from Dow Jones
All Rights Reserved
Data in Image

Data in Image

HEADLINE: How to Handle North Korea

BYLINE: By Richard N. Haass

BODY:


The North Korean sinking of the Cheonan has left both the South Korean and U.S. governments with a dilemma. There is the strategic and political need to respond to this unprovoked aggression that killed 46 sailors. At the same time, there is little left to take away from an already poor and isolated North Korea. Moreover, there is the real concern that any proportional -- i.e., military -- response to the attack could trigger a costly, all-out war on the long-divided peninsula.

The administrations of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and Barack Obama have tried to thread the needle by introducing a series of penalties and criticisms. South Korea has cut off all trade with its neighbor and denied North Korean merchant vessels access to South Korean sea lanes. Diplomats from both countries are busy paving the way for a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning North Korea's aggression and possibly sanctioning it as a result.

Meanwhile, Congress is considering a resolution that would add to the criticism of North Korea. However well-intentioned, it would count for little. If America's elected representatives really want to send a message, they have it in their hands to do so: Pass the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

The pact, which makes economic sense for both countries, has been sitting for three years now waiting for congressional action. It is a victim of mostly (although not exclusively) Democratic Party fears that what may make economic sense would hurt politically come November. The Obama administration has not made its passage a legislative priority. But it should be, not simply to create jobs, but to send a much-needed signal of solidarity with an ally at a time of true need.

Even with this action, the problem with the available responses is that they are unlikely to do anything to alter the behavior of the North Korean regime. Efforts to induce or pressure the North into giving up its nuclear weapons and missiles have come to naught. The six party talks designed to bring about denuclearization have not formally met for nearly three years now, and even if they were to reconvene, there is no reason to believe that Pyongyang would give up the weapons it sees as critical to its standing.

So what to do? The next real opportunity to change things for the better is likely to come when North Korea's mercurial tyrant Kim Jong Il departs the scene once and for all time. But positive change will only happen if China acts. If in real estate all that matters is location, location and location, it is only a slight exaggeration to contend that what matters most when it comes to North Korea is China, China and China.

China, however, has been and remains reluctant to use the influence that comes from the fact that the bulk of North Korean trade and energy imports transit Chinese territory and it is China that provides most of Pyongyang's financial links to the outside world. Chinese leaders fear the flood of refugees that would come with North Korean collapse and even more the prospect of a reunified Korean peninsula with its capital in Seoul and lodged squarely within the American strategic orbit.

The good news is that many in China are coming to see North Korea less as an asset and more as the strategic burden that it is. North Korean behavior (such as shown in the sinking of the Cheonan) could easily trigger a war on China's border; North Korean sale of nuclear materials to al Qaeda could trigger an American attack.

This rethinking of what China gets out of its relationship with North Korea may not translate into open Chinese support for a tough resolution at the U.N., but it could well lead to quiet, behind-the-scenes Chinese involvement in North Korea's leadership struggle. China is in a better position than anyone else to increase the odds that Kim Jong Il is succeeded by a reformer who would introduce some market and political changes (call it the Chinese model) and act responsibly towards South Korea and his own citizens.

China has a stake in doing so: to avoid
instability on its border, to avoid a crisis that could further roil the region's (and hence China's) economy, and to avoid pressures for nuclear programs in North Korea's neighbors, most notably Japan.

American and South Korean officials need to do more than just point out the risk to their Chinese counterparts of China's current course. They also need to discuss the character of a unified Korea and how one would get there, addressing legitimate Chinese strategic concerns including the questions of non-Korean troop presence and the full denuclearization of the peninsula.

U.S. and South Korean policy should move away from ritualistic calls for resumption of negotiations and toward something far more fundamental:
a change in regime in the North that could lead to denuclearization in the short run and Korean reunification over time. In addition, the two governments would be wise to step up their planning for all possible contingencies.

South Korea's president may have signaled an interest in just this on Monday, saying "It is now time for the North Korean regime to change." President Obama should follow suit. There would be no better way to mark this June's 60th anniversary of the Korean war.

---

Mr. Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of "War of Necessity, War of Choice: A Memoir of Two Iraq Wars" (Simon & Schuster, 2009).

License this article from Dow Jones Reprint Service

NOTES:
=====================
China to make objective, fair judgement on S. Korean warship sinking: Wen

Special Report: Wen Attends Leaders' Meeting of China, Japan, ROK, Visits 4 Asian Nations


SEOUL, May 28 (Xinhua) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said here on Friday that China will make a judgement in an "objective and fair manner" and take its stance on the basis of facts concerning the sinking of a South Korean warship.

Wen, who arrived here earlier in the day on a three-day official visit,

made the comments during a meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

He said that China has always stood for maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and worked persistently for this end.

China always opposes and condemns any acts detrimental to peace and stability on the peninsula, he said.

Wen said that as a responsible country, China takes serious note of the results of a joint investigation by South Korea and other countries, as well as the reactions of all parties.

Premier Wen urges all parties to keep calm and show restraint, so as to prevent a deterioration of the situation, especially possible clashes in a joint effort to maintain the hard-won peace and stability on the Peninsula.

Wen said that all concerned parties should take a long-term perspective, actively promote the process of the six-party talks in a bid to resolve the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula and achieve lasting peace and stability on the Peninsula.

He said that China hopes the South Korean government will properly handle the warship sinking incident and that China will keep close communication with South Korea on the issue.

On March 26, the South Korean naval vessel, Cheonan, with 104 crew members onboard, sank into the waters off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula, killing 46 sailors.

On May 20, the South Korean government released the results of a multinational investigation, which concluded that Cheonan was torpedoed by a submarine of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The DPRK vehemently rejected the accusation and warned that any retaliation would lead to an "all-out" war.


PUBLISHER: Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

LOAD-DATE: May 28, 2010