Showing posts with label Yemen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Yemen. Show all posts

Immunity Deal in Yemen - President Ali Abdullah Saleh


Immunity Deal in Yemen
BY ALIREZA AZIZI , November 28, 2011 

After many months of back and forth negotiations, last week President Ali Abdullah Saleh, finally singed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) agreement for a power-transfer. Even though the details of the full agreement have not been made public, it is widely believed that the agreement offers the president and some others government officials immunity from criminal investigation and prosecution.

Under the GCC agreement, president Saleh will retain the title of president until the new presidential election takes place within 90 days. But he will hand over some of the presidential powers to Vice-president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, to implement the agreement. A member of the opposition will head a government of national reconciliation for the next two years. President Saleh, who has been in power for 33 years and has hinted at stepping down several times in the past several months, only to change course later.

Unarmed protesters have marched in different cities in Yemen opposing the deal, calling for Saleh and other officials to stand trial for their role in abuses. Over the past 10 months, more than 200 people have been killed and thousands injured as security forces and armed supporters of the president Saleh attempted to quell mostly peaceful pro-reform demonstrators.

Amnesty International and the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights have called for an independent, international investigation into Yemen’s ongoing human rights violations.

There cannot be a true reform and justice without accountability, and the only way to ensure accountability is to carry out an independent, international investigation into the allegations of serious crimes under international law.

As Amnesty International has said “immunity leads to impunity” 

Leading experts call on Obama to focus on aid instead of drone attacks on Yemen

Leading Experts Call for Recalibration of US Policy on Yemen in Letter to President Obama

June 26, 2012

WASHINGTON -- Twenty-seven leading foreign policy experts have sent a letter to President Obama, calling for a broader approach on US policy towards Yemen that “expands beyond the narrow lens of counterterrorism.” As US intelligence agencies point to the rise of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) activity making Yemen the next front in counterterrorism, the letter, signed by diplomats, security specialists, scholars, and US policy experts, argues that current US policy is short-sighted. It strongly urges for better policy that still serves America’s national interests by decreasing extremism and combating security threats in the region, but through a comprehensive, long-term approach that addresses Yemen’s social, economic, and political challenges.

The five-page letter, argues that current US counterterrorism policy toward Yemen “does not address the underlying causes that have propelled such [militant] forces to find fertile ground in Yemen” and that US public diplomacy only reinforces such perceptions: “Although the Department of State, USAID, and others have invested millions in development and governance projects, the perception both in the US and in Yemen is that we are singularly focused on AQAP. Yemenis need to know that their country is more than a proxy battleground and that our long-term commitment to the stability, development, and legitimacy of the country matches our more immediate and urgent commitment to the defeat of AQAP.”

Among the letter’s recommendations, the experts call for the US Administration to:
  • Change the primary face of the US government in Yemen to alter the perception that US interest and attention are solely dominated by counterterrorism and security issues.
  • Reevaluate the strategy of drone strikes with the recognition that it is generating significant anti-American sentiment.
  • Work with Friends of Yemen to provide humanitarian aid for the more than 10 million Yemenis going hungry daily.
  • Increase economic and governance aid to support democratic institution-building, so that it represents a greater proportion of overall assistance compared with military assistance
  • Support the restructuring of Yemeni security towards a unified command hierarchy under Yemeni civilian leadership.

The bipartisan letter includes signatories from a range of backgrounds including Andrew Natsios, former Administrator of USAID; Emile Nakhleh, former Director of the CIA's Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program; David Kramer of Freedom House; Steven Heydemann of Georgetown University; and Andrew Exum of the Center for New American Security.

This letter to President Obama was coordinated by the Yemen Policy Initiative, a new collaborative effort of the Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council and the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED), which seeks to advance a more sustainable, long-term US policy that guarantees US national security interests and supports Yemen’s political transition.


Yemen Policy Initiative Letter to Obama 6-25-12

legality of the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki

DO
Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, 542 U.S. 507, 597 (2004) (Thomas, J., dissenting) (suggesting that the plurality would not demand additional process in a situation where US citizens are targeted and killed in Yemen missile strike)

A Just Act of War
By JACK L. GOLDSMITH,  September 30, 2011

Santa Fe, N.M.
ON Friday, an American drone flying over northern Yemen killed Anwar al-Awlaki, a leader of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula — a Qaeda affiliate. Mr. Awlaki helped support an attempted attack on a Detroit-bound flight in 2009 and had been linked to other attempted attacks in the United States.

Drone strikes against terrorists outside of so-called hot battlefields like Afghanistan have become commonplace during the Obama presidency, and have reportedly decimated the leadership of Al Qaeda and its affiliates. What made this strike unusual, however, was that Mr. Awlaki was an American citizen, having been born in New Mexico.

This fateful new step in our ever-expanding war against terrorists — intentionally killing an American citizen — is fraught with the danger of executive overreach or mistakes. But the Obama administration has done an admirable job to date of balancing these potential dangers against security imperatives.

The United States did not claim the power to kill Mr. Awlaki because of his political views or because he was a mere member of a Qaeda affiliate against which Congress had authorized the use of force. It claimed the power to kill him, rather, because he was an operational leader of a Qaeda affiliate that had been involved in terrorist plots on American soil and because he was hiding in a country that lacked the capacity to arrest him and bring him to justice.

Nor does the killing of Mr. Awlaki mean, as Glenn Greenwald charged in Salon, that “due-process-free assassination of U.S. citizens is now reality.” An attack on an enemy soldier during war is not an assassination. During World War II, the United States targeted and killed Adm. Isoroku Yamamoto, the architect of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Moreover, the United States knew there were many American citizens in the German Army during World War II, but it did not alter its bombing practices as a result.

And while no court approved the killing of Mr. Awlaki, it is not accurate to say that he was targeted without due process. What due process requires depends on context. In a lawsuit brought last year that sought to prevent the government from targeting Mr. Awlaki, a federal judge ruled that in wartime the Constitution left it to the president and Congress, not the courts, to decide military targeting issues.

Even with this ruling, there is an understandable concern about the president’s making a decision to kill an American citizen. This is why the Obama administration has gone to unusual lengths, consistent with the need to protect intelligence, to explain the basis for and limits on its actions. Mr. Obama’s senior counterterrorism adviser, John O. Brennan, made clear in a recent speech that, outside traditional battlefields, the United States targets only individuals who threaten American security. Moreover, there is an extraordinary process inside the government to ensure that this standard is met.

Before someone like Mr. Awlaki is targeted, multiple intelligence sources support the conclusion that he is a dangerous threat, top lawyers from many agencies scrutinize the action, policy makers at the highest levels of government approve the action after assessing its legal and political risks, and the Congressional intelligence committees are informed about the intelligence community’s role in the operations.

It is true that these internal targeting procedures gave Mr. Awlaki less due process than he would have received from a court. And these procedures are no guarantee against mistakes (though judicial process provides no such guarantee either).

That said, these procedures are wholly unprecedented in war, and they exceed anything the law requires. The caution inherent in this internal process is appropriate to guard against mistaken or imprudent actions when targeting individuals who have the power to wreak havoc on America while hiding among civilians in faraway places.

Such a cautious approach is especially appropriate when an American citizen is targeted. The president has a duty to keep the country safe. So far, it appears, the Obama administration is exercising this duty lawfully and with caution. Such caution, however, does not guarantee legitimacy at home or abroad. There are relatively few complaints in American society about the drone program, but drones are becoming increasingly controversial outside the United States on the ground that they violate international law.

The Obama administration has tried to explain the basis for its actions under international law just as it has under domestic law. But its international law arguments are more controversial. The administration claims that strikes in places like Yemen are consistent with the United Nations charter because the other country consents to them or is unable or unwilling to check the terrorist threat, thereby bringing America’s right to self-defense into play. Moreover, the White House argues that such strikes comply with international law-of-war duties to distinguish civilians from attack and use only proportionate force.

These international-law arguments are unconvincing to those who deny the possibility of a war in many nations against nonstate actors, and who are deeply worried about the asymmetrical power that drones possess — precluding, as they do, the need to put American soldiers at risk. Drone critics are increasingly mobilizing forces — at the United Nations, through human rights advocacy and litigation, and in other arenas — to attack the American drone program and make it more costly to use. 

This campaign will only gain steam after today’s strike in Yemen. The Obama administration cannot afford to ignore these efforts, but it also cannot give in to them.

It can perhaps release a bit more information about the basis for its targeted strikes. It is doubtful, however, that more transparency or more elaborate legal arguments will change many minds, since the goal of drone critics is to end their use altogether (outside of Afghanistan).

While the administration must continue to manage its critics, it cannot afford to forgo using drones, which are an accurate, successful and cost-effective counterterrorism tool whose value will only grow as the United States withdraws its troops from Afghanistan and Iraq.

Jack L. Goldsmith, a former assistant attorney general in the George W. Bush administration, teaches at Harvard Law School, serves on the Hoover Institution Task Force on National Security and Law and is the author of “The Terror Presidency.”


An Illegal and Counterproductive Assassination
By YASIR QADHI , October 1, 2011

Yasir Qadhi, an American Muslim cleric, is a doctoral candidate in the Department of Religious Studies at Yale. He blogs at muslimmatters.org.
Memphis
ANWAR AL-AWLAKI, the Yemeni-American cleric who was killed Friday in a C.I.A. drone attack in Yemen, appears to be the first United States citizen that our government has publicly targeted for assassination.

The accusations against him were very serious, but as a citizen, he deserved a fair trial and the chance to face his accusers in a court of law. Whether he deserved any punishment for his speech was a decision that a jury should have made, not the executive branch of our government. The killing of this American citizen is not only unconstitutional, but hypocritical and counterproductive.

The assassination is unconstitutional because the Fifth Amendment specifies that no person may “be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.” A group of policy makers unilaterally deciding that a particular citizen needs to be targeted is not, by any stretch of the imagination, due process.

The assassination is hypocritical because America routinely criticizes (and justifiably so) such extrajudicial assassinations when they occur at the hands of another government. We most certainly don’t approve the regimes of Syria or Iran eliminating those whom they deem to be traitors. In fact, Al Qaeda’s own justifications for murder stem from the notion that its members are qualified to be the judge, jury and executioner of those whom they view as enemies. America’s moral authority is undermined if we criticize in others what we do ourselves. It only reinforces the stereotype that the United States has very little concern for its own principles. Even Nazi war criminals got their day in court, at Nuremburg.

It is ironic to note that those who have actually attempted terrorist attacks on American soil and been caught were read their Miranda rights and went to trial, even though some were not United States citizens. Yet Mr. Awlaki, who has never been accused of himself directly attempting an attack, was not given this chance.

Lastly, the assassination is counterproductive because it feeds into the martyr mythology that makes Al Qaeda’s narrative so different from that of most other terrorist groups.

If our policy makers studied history, they would realize that Sayyid Qutb, a founder of radical Islam, while popular in his life, only achieved his legendary status after the Nasser regime in Egypt had him executed, in 1966. Instantly, his books became (and remain) best sellers. Killing people doesn’t make their ideas go away.

Mr. Awlaki was born in New Mexico in 1971 while his father was pursuing graduate studies. Though his parents returned to Yemen when he was seven, he later returned to the United States to pursue degrees in engineering and education. Eventually, he became an imam, or leader, of a mosque in California and later in Virginia. During these years, it is alleged that he met multiple times with at least three of the 9/11 hijackers. But for many American Muslims, he was only known for one thing: the telling of stories from the Koran. He lectured about the lives of the prophets of God, drawing from traditional Islamic sources (and sometimes even Biblical ones).

His captivating lecture style and copious quotations from classical sources made him extremely popular, especially among American Muslim youth. During these pre-9/11 years, these lectures, still available online, became some of the hottest-selling items at some Islamic conferences across America. At this stage, he was not publicly associated with any radical views. However, after 9/11, he adopted a more adversarial and anti-American tone, eventually moving back to Yemen. He was jailed for two years (and rumored to have been tortured).

It was only after his release that he publicly began supporting Al Qaeda and issuing messages calling for attacks upon the United States. It was alleged that he came into contact with or inspired a number of people to attempt terrorist activities: Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, the Army psychiatrist accused in the 2009 killings in Fort Hood, Tex.; Umar Farouk Abdulmuttalib, accused of trying to set off a bomb hidden in his underwear on a 2009 flight to Detroit; and Faisal Shahzad, who tried to blow up a car in Times Square last year.

Mr. Awlaki’s ideas were dangerous. His message that one cannot be a good Muslim and an American at the same time was insulting to nearly all American Muslims. His views about the permissibility of killing Americans indiscriminately were completely at odds with those of mainstream Muslim clerics around the world. He needed to be refuted. And that is why many people, myself included, were extremely vocal in doing just that.

Mr. Awlaki needed to be challenged, not assassinated. By killing him, America has once again blurred the lines between its own tactics and the tactics of its enemies. In silencing Mr. Awlaki’s voice, not only did America fail to live up to its ideals, but it gave Mr. Awlaki’s dangerous message a life and power of its own. And these two facts make the job of refuting that message now even more difficult.



A Targeted killing.
International Herald Tribune
October 13, 2011 Thursday

President Obama said Mr. Awlaki, a radical Muslim cleric, had taken ''the lead role in planning and directing the efforts to murder innocent Americans.'' Officials have said Mr. Awlaki's role went beyond inspiration into operational planning of attacks, though they have not supplied proof. If the White House would release the evidence it has to back up these claims, it would have a better chance of justifying the cleric's death.

The memo, prepared by two Justice Department lawyers, said Mr. Awlaki could be killed because he was taking part in the war between the United States and Al Qaeda and posed a significant threat to Americans, but it stopped short of analyzing the quality of the evidence. It said joining an enemy force deprived him of a citizen's due process rights, citing several Supreme Court rulings that put the protection of innocent lives above the risk of possible death of a suspect.


Secret U.S. Memo Made Legal Case to Kill a Citizen
By CHARLIE SAVAGE , October 8, 2011

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration’s secret legal memorandum that opened the door to the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki, the American-born radical Muslim cleric hiding in Yemen, found that it would be lawful only if it were not feasible to take him alive, according to people who have read the document.

The memo, written last year, followed months of extensive interagency deliberations and offers a glimpse into the legal debate that led to one of the most significant decisions made by President Obama — to move ahead with the killing of an American citizen without a trial.

The secret document provided the justification for acting despite an executive order banning assassinations, a federal law against murder, protections in the Bill of Rights and various strictures of the international laws of war, according to people familiar with the analysis. The memo, however, was narrowly drawn to the specifics of Mr. Awlaki’s case and did not establish a broad new legal doctrine to permit the targeted killing of any Americans believed to pose a terrorist threat.

The Obama administration has refused to acknowledge or discuss its role in the drone strike that killed Mr. Awlaki last month and that technically remains a covert operation. The government has also resisted growing calls that it provide a detailed public explanation of why officials deemed it lawful to kill an American citizen, setting a precedent that scholars, rights activists and others say has raised concerns about the rule of law and civil liberties.

But the document that laid out the administration’s justification — a roughly 50-page memorandum by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel, completed around June 2010 — was described on the condition of anonymity by people who have read it.

The legal analysis, in essence, concluded that Mr. Awlaki could be legally killed, if it was not feasible to capture him, because intelligence agencies said he was taking part in the war between the United States and Al Qaeda and posed a significant threat to Americans, as well as because Yemeni authorities were unable or unwilling to stop him.

The memorandum, which was written more than a year before Mr. Awlaki was killed, does not independently analyze the quality of the evidence against him.

The administration did not respond to requests for comment on this article.

The deliberations to craft the memo included meetings in the White House Situation Room involving top lawyers for the Pentagon, State Department, National Security Council and intelligence agencies.
It was principally drafted by David Barron and Martin Lederman, who were both lawyers in the Office of Legal Counsel at the time, and was signed by Mr. Barron. The office may have given oral approval for an attack on Mr. Awlaki before completing its detailed memorandum. Several news reports before June 2010 quoted anonymous counterterrorism officials as saying that Mr. Awlaki had been placed on a kill-or-capture list around the time of the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Dec. 25, 2009. Mr. Awlaki was accused of helping to recruit the attacker for that operation.

Mr. Awlaki, who was born in New Mexico, was also accused of playing a role in a failed plot to bomb two cargo planes last year, part of a pattern of activities that counterterrorism officials have said showed that he had evolved from merely being a propagandist — in sermons justifying violence by Muslims against the United States — to playing an operational role in Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s continuing efforts to carry out terrorist attacks.

Other assertions about Mr. Awlaki included that he was a leader of the group, which had become a “cobelligerent” with Al Qaeda, and he was pushing it to focus on trying to attack the United States again. The lawyers were also told that capturing him alive among hostile armed allies might not be feasible if and when he were located.

Based on those premises, the Justice Department concluded that Mr. Awlaki was covered by the authorization to use military force against Al Qaeda that Congress enacted shortly after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001 — meaning that he was a lawful target in the armed conflict unless some other legal prohibition trumped that authority.

It then considered possible obstacles and rejected each in turn.

Among them was an executive order that bans assassinations. That order, the lawyers found, blocked unlawful killings of political leaders outside of war, but not the killing of a lawful target in an armed conflict.

federal statute that prohibits Americans from murdering other Americans abroad, the lawyers wrote, did not apply either, because it is not “murder” to kill a wartime enemy in compliance with the laws of war.

But that raised another pressing question: would it comply with the laws of war if the drone operator who fired the missile was a Central Intelligence Agency official, who, unlike a soldier, wore no uniform? The memorandum concluded that such a case would not be a war crime, although the operator might be in theoretical jeopardy of being prosecuted in a Yemeni court for violating Yemen’s domestic laws against murder, a highly unlikely possibility.

DO – CIA is technically speaking civilian. DPHing is not a violation of law of armed conflict (LOAC). Instead, CIA is not entitled to POW status (not protected under LOAC)

Then there was the Bill of Rights: the Fourth Amendment’s guarantee that a “person” cannot be seized by the government unreasonably, and the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee that the government may not deprive a person of life “without due process of law.”

The memo concluded that what was reasonable, and the process that was due, was different for Mr. Awlaki than for an ordinary criminal. It cited court cases allowing American citizens who had joined an enemy’s forces to be detained or prosecuted in a military court just like noncitizen enemies.

It also cited several other Supreme Court precedents, like a 2007 case involving a high-speed chase and a 1985 case involving the shooting of a fleeing suspect, finding that it was constitutional for the police to take actions that put a suspect in serious risk of death in order to curtail an imminent risk to innocent people.

The document’s authors argued that “imminent” risks could include those by an enemy leader who is in the business of attacking the United States whenever possible, even if he is not in the midst of launching an attack at the precise moment he is located.

There remained, however, the question of whether — when the target is known to be a citizen — it was permissible to kill him if capturing him instead were a feasible way of suppressing the threat.
Killed in the strike alongside Mr. Awlaki was another American citizen, Samir Khan, who had produced a magazine for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula promoting terrorism. He was apparently not on the targeting list, making his death collateral damage. His family has issued a statement citing the Fifth Amendment and asking whether it was necessary for the government to have “assassinated two of its citizens.”

“Was this style of execution the only solution?” the Khan family asked in its statement. “Why couldn’t there have been a capture and trial?”

Last month, President Obama’s top counterterrorism adviser, John O. Brennan, delivered a speech in which he strongly denied the accusation that the administration had sometimes chosen to kill militants when capturing them was possible, saying the policy preference is to interrogate them for intelligence.

The memorandum is said to declare that in the case of a citizen, it is legally required to capture the militant if feasible — raising a question: was capturing Mr. Awlaki in fact feasible?

It is possible that officials decided last month that it was not feasible to attempt to capture him because of factors like the risk it could pose to American commandos and the diplomatic problems that could arise from putting ground forces on Yemeni soil. Still, the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan demonstrates that officials have deemed such operations feasible at times.
Last year, Yemeni commandos surrounded a village in which Mr. Awlaki was believed to be hiding, but he managed to slip away.

The administration had already expressed in public some of the arguments about issues of international law addressed by the memo, in a speech delivered in March 2010 by Harold Hongju Koh, the top State Department lawyer. (ASIL speech by Harold Hongju Koh)

The memorandum examined whether it was relevant that Mr. Awlaki was in Yemen, far from Afghanistan. It concluded that Mr. Awlaki’s geographical distance from the so-called hot battlefield did not preclude him from the armed conflict; given his presumed circumstances, the United States still had a right to use force to defend itself against him.

As to whether it would violate Yemen’s sovereignty to fire a missile at someone on Yemeni soil, Yemen’s president secretly granted the United States that permission, as secret diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks have revealed.

The memorandum did assert that other limitations on the use of force under the laws of war — like avoiding the use of disproportionate force that would increase the possibility of civilian deaths — would constrain any operation against Mr. Awlaki.

Do- other LOAC

That apparently constrained the attack when it finally came. Details about Mr. Awlaki’s location surfaced about a month ago, American officials have said, but his hunters delayed the strike until he left a village and was on a road away from populated areas.


The Administration’s Strange Reasoning on al-Awlaki
By John Yoo  , October 09, 2011

Sunday’s report on the Obama administration’s secret legal justification for the killing of Anwar al-Awlaki shows just how dangerously confused they have become about the rules of war.  All of this comes, of course, with the caveat that we are only going on secondhand descriptions of the Office of Legal Counsel opinion (and we should at least note, in passing, that this administration’s members attacked the Bush folks for not making similar national-security documents public, and have already refused to make public their legal opinions that laughably found the Libya conflict not to be a “war”).

Let’s give partial credit where it is due.  Apparently the Obama administration argues that al-Awlaki was a legitimate target because he is a member of an enemy engaged in hostile conduct against the United States.  At least Obama has figured out that the war on terrorism is in fact a war, and that it is not limited just to Afghanistan.  We should be thankful that Obama officials have quietly put aside the arguments they made during the Bush years that any terrorist outside the Afghani battlefield was a criminal suspect who deserved his day in federal court.  By my lights, I would rather the Obama folks be hypocrites in favor of protecting the national security than principled fools (which they are free to be in the faculty lounges both before and after their time in government).

But the administration’s former worldview of terrorism still infects their decisions, to the country’s detriment.  According to the reports, the Obama administration believes that force could only be used against al-Awlaki because arrest was impractical and al-Awlaki posed an imminent threat of harm to the United States.  This is plainly wrong.  It may make for good policy, especially toward American citizens who make the mistake of joining the enemy, but there is no legal reason why a nation at war must try to apprehend an enemy instead of shooting at him first.  Every member of the enemy armed forces and leadership is a legitimate target in wartime, regardless of whether they can be caught or whether they pose an imminent threat.  In fact, the Obama administration continues to confuse war with crime — the idea that you must try to arrest first and can only use force against an imminent attack is the standard that applies to the police, not the military.

Think of the operation to kill Admiral Yamamoto in World War II.  He was well behind the lines, flying from one military base to another.  He didn’t pose an “imminent” threat of attack on the United States at that moment.  The United States did not need to ask whether it could have forced Yamamoto’s plane down first and captured him.  It was allowed to kill him, just as it could kill any other member of the Japanese military, regardless of his threat.

It may be that the Obama administration thinks that U.S. citizens who join the enemy are entitled to special rules — like those that apply to the police, instead of those that apply to the military.  But this would be wrong too.  As I explained in the Wall Street Journal last week, ever since the Civil War, our national leaders and the Supreme Court have agreed that a citizen who joins the enemy must suffer the consequences of his belligerency, with the same status as that of an alien enemy.  Think of the incentives that the strange Obama hybrid rule creates. Our al-Qaeda enemy will want to recruit American agents, who will benefit from criminal-justice rules that give them advantages in carrying out operations against us (like the right to remain silent, to Miranda and lawyers, to a speedy jury trial, etc.).  Our troops and agents in the field may well hesitate in the field, as they will not be able to tell in the heat of the moment whether an enemy is American or not.  Obama still remains trapped by his liberal pieties, and those biases will reduce the reach of American arms and bless the enemy with undeserved advantages.

— John Yoo is a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley and author of Crisis and Command: A History of Executive Power from George Washington to George W. Bush.

Anti-Government Protests In Yemen Turn Bloody


Anti-Government Protests In Yemen Turn Bloody
September 20, 2011

Dozens of anti-government protesters died in Yemen over the last two days after loyalist security forces opened fire on the main square in the capital Sanaa. Les Campbell, who runs the Middle East and North Africa programs at the National Democratic Institute, talks to Steve Inskeep about the political wrangling over the future of the country.

DAVID GREENE, host: It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Good morning. I'm David Greene.

STEVE INSKEEP, host: And I'm Steve Inskeep.

Let's try to get some perspective on the excruciating events in Yemen this week. According to witnesses, security forces have killed protestors and even killed children. Dozens of people have been killed since Sunday. Les Campbell is tracking those events from the National Democratic Institute, a non-profit group that supports democracy abroad. He's a regular visitor to Yemen. He's in our studios.

Good morning.

LES CAMPBELL: Good morning.

INSKEEP: How have Yemenis ended up with another round of violence? I thought the president was on his way out.

CAMPBELL: Well, it's an amazing situation where the president was badly injured. Most members of his government were injured at the same time in a bombing on their mosque. The head of the Shura Council, who was standing beside the president at the time, died of his injuries later. He's in Saudi Arabia. He has been since June. And yet there's no transition in Yemen.

Since that moment, two opposing forces basically, defected soldiers from the First Armored Brigade, and the president's son, Ahmed Ali, have been in a standoff, opposing trenches. And this week, the fighting started between those two forces - tanks, mortars, heavy machine guns. And we've seen the casualties.

INSKEEP: Even though the president himself, from Saudi Arabia, has appointed his vice president to negotiate a transition of power, which is the latest of I don't know how many discussions of transition, that's just not happening?

CAMPBELL: Well, the president did issue a decree saying that the vice president could talk, although from the opposition's point of view - and when I say opposition that's a broad word. That could include the southern movement, the protesters in the squares, the political opposition. From the opposition's point of view, this is not really a negotiation. This is just another stalling tactic.

And it's hard to say who fired the first shot. The protesters appear to have been shelled at random. That's where you have the casualties of children of other bystanders. But in the end, there are two military forces and there is really no negotiation, although there is a representative of the U.N. and a representative of the Gulf Cooperation countries in Sanaa right now negotiating.

I mean, the other, I suppose, sad irony of this is just when two negotiators, international negotiators arrived, this fighting started. So it seems that no one's that serious about moving forward.

INSKEEP: And it's two armed groups at this point that are going after each other?

CAMPBELL: Well, it's at least two in the capital. You have two very well-armed groups. The president's son Ahmed Ali, his nephew, who also controls large numbers of forces, what I think we'll call security forces for short, and then Ali Mohsen, a commander, a general who commands a large military camp and many thousands of soldiers. They have trenches right in the middle of the city. And they have positions in the middle of the city.

INSKEEP: Does the second guy, Ali Mohsen, count as a protest leader then or is a defector from the ranks? What do you call him?

CAMPBELL: The president calls him a defector. He has said that he's neutral and he's sworn to protect the protesters. You know, the approximate cause of this week's problems were that the protesters picked up from their square. They in a sense were allowed to stay in a certain place in Sanaa, near the university. They picked up and started to march toward the president's son's sort of holdout.

This is what the, I think, what the government would say. And so they opened fire in a defensive fashion. What Ali Mohsen, the rebel commander, would say is that the security forces opened fire on the protesters and he's protecting them.

In the end, there's no - there aren't two sides in Yemen. There're probably five sides, and it's almost impossible to tell who's who.

INSKEEP: Five sides and does that reflect divisions in the society? There are a lot of different interest groups that could come down in different places and who fear that their interests could be affected here.

CAMPBELL: It's always been a difficult country to govern. Almost impossible. And you have a secessionist movement. You have a political opposition. You have Arab Spring protesters who simply want to move on and have a new government and a new future. And it's - they're not fighting each other. But the president, who's been there for a long time, is refusing to step down. But more importantly, he's refusing to allow a transition to something new. And what Yemen desperately needs is something new.

INSKEEP: Refusing to allow a transition, even as he says to talk, says to work out a transition?

CAMPBELL: Refusing to allow anyone to even really discuss a transfer of power, even though he's not even in the country, and even though the country so desperately needs to move on.

INSKEEP: Les Campbell of the National Democratic Institute is a regular visitor to Yemen, where there have been dozens of deaths in continuing violence this week

The challenge of Libya; Where will it end? (March 24, 2011)


The challenge of Libya
Where will it end?
The Americans, the Europeans and the Arabs must all hold their nerve
Mar 24th 2011

THE spectacle of American, British and French missiles pulverising an Arab and Muslim country at the dead of night arouses a sense of foreboding. Such ventures have too often begun with good intentions and naive overconfidence, as oil-rich despots see their armour crumple and burn beneath superior Western technology. Within weeks, though, vainglory turns into a costly and bloody quagmire.

<questions that started with the case for intervening in Libya>
Yet nobody could accuse Barack Obama and his allies, chiefly Britain’s David Cameron and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy, of overconfidence in attacking Libya on March 19th. It is hard to think of a military enterprise that has been conceived in so much doubt and anxiety. What if Muammar Qaddafi sits out the raids in his bunker? What if Libya is partitioned? What if, chastened by news footage of dead women and children in a Tripoli market, the coalition starts to fall apart? What if many of the eastern Libyans whom the outside world is protecting turn out to sympathise with al-Qaeda? What if they go on to behave as murderously as the colonel and his paid killers?

The answers to those questions start with the case for intervening in Libya. Western sceptics complain that they have “no dog in this fight”. Libyans, they say, should be left to submit to the colonel or kill him off, as best they can.

<justification for the intervention>
(1), the most violent despot ; affect neighboring states, such as Egypt, Tunisia, and Syria  

That view is too parochial. Colonel Qaddafi is the Arab world’s most violent despot. In one day in 1996 his men killed 1,270 prisoners in a Tripoli jail. He has backed terrorism and assassinated dissidents. Western leaders were right to have given him a chance to turn a new leaf after 2003, when he renounced his nuclear programme. But when peaceful protesters marched for change a few weeks ago he shot them—seemingly with relish.  Whatever the course of the coming weeks and months, do not forget that the colonel and his sons had vowed to slaughter the people of Tobruk and Benghazi, house by house. In the narrowest of senses, a mission that many said was pointless and too late has already chalked up one success.

Moreover, what happens in Libya, for good or ill, will affect its more hopeful neighbours, Egypt and Tunisia. Farther afield, even Syria is beginning to stir and its government may be tempted to be as ruthless as Libya’s (see article). If violence prevails in Libya, the momentum for peaceful change across the Middle East may drain away, as both autocrats and protesters elsewhere in the Arab world conclude that violence is after all an essential tool for getting their way.

Be practical, as well as principled

(2) guilty of hypocrisy. Dual standard, Bahrain , Yemen,

The sceptics’ second retort is that the West is guilty of hypocrisy. As it inveighs against Colonel Qaddafi, its Saudi allies have helped snuff out the flame of democracy in the Gulf state of Bahrain. And surely the West should stop propping up the Yemeni dictator, Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose forces have just shot dead dozens of protesters?

Here practicality—some would say realpolitik—comes into play, sometimes frustratingly. The violence in Bahrain is on a vastly smaller scale than that in Libya; and the West is locked into a military alliance with both Bahrain—home to America’s Fifth Fleet—and its royal family’s protector, Saudi Arabia.   To take on Bahrain’s rulers would be to endanger that alliance—and they have run a more open society than Libya anyway.
As for Yemen, it is an ungovernable snakepit, home to rival tribes, secessionists and a local branch of al-Qaeda. Nobody in his right mind would intervene there. Neither Bahrain or Yemen is susceptible to an air campaign as Libya is, with its long stretches of desert that expose Colonel Qaddafi’s advancing tanks. You intervene when you can, not to be consistent.

(3) defining mission

The sceptics’ third complaint is that the West has entered this campaign without defining the mission. That is both unfair and true.   It is unfair because dictators do not work to a diplomatic timetable. Colonel Qaddafi’s rapid advance to Benghazi meant that the outside world had to intervene within days or not at all. But it is true that there has been some indecisiveness—principally from Mr Obama. That helped forge a broader coalition, but the West now has its work cut out. It must urgently decide who is in charge, clarify the powers granted by the Security Council resolution enabling Libya’s civilians to be protected by “all necessary means” and, most important of all, determine what the campaign’s aims should be.

A fight that needs a general

America wants to cede overall control as soon as it has carried out the bulk of the initial bombing. Although to some extent Mr Obama is again shrinking from leadership, it probably makes sense. The mission will look less American: it will force the Europeans to be responsible for a cause they championed; and in NATO there is a body that can take operational control.

The difficult decision is whether Colonel Qaddafi’s removal, dead or alive, should be an explicit aim of the enforcers. The UN resolution makes no mention of such a thing, though many Western and Arab leaders have said they want the colonel to go. As commander-in-chief of security forces that have already killed hundreds of civilians since peaceful protests started a month ago, he is arguably a legitimate target. But it would be far better if his own people dealt with him, handed him over to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, or chased him into exile, rather than let him be singled out by his Western enemies for elimination.

Leaving the Libyans to do that unaided is admittedly a risk, but the odds are on the rebels’ side. Once Colonel Qaddafi cannot pound cities such as Benghazi with impunity, opposition across the country will grow again. Isolated and economically strangled, the colonel and his regime would be lucky to survive indefinitely. Even if Libya were temporarily partitioned, the West could keep up the no-fly zone with minimal effort. Gradually, the noose would tighten around the colonel, especially as the anti-Qaddafi east holds most of Libya’s oil.

<lesson through bitter experience with Iraq>
Libya is not Iraq. The West has learned through bitter experience to avoid the grievous mistakes it made from the outset of that venture.  For one thing, the current mission is indisputably legal.   For another, it has, at least for now, the backing of Libya’s own people and—even allowing for some wobbles from Turkey and the Arab League—of most Arab and Muslim countries. Libya’s population is a quarter the size of Iraq’s, and the country should be easier to control: almost all its people, a more homogeneous lot albeit with sharp tribal loyalties, live along the Mediterranean coastal strip. If Colonel Qaddafi’s state crumbles, the West should not seek to disband his army or the upper echelons of his administration, as it foolishly did in Iraq. The opposition’s interim national council contains secular liberals, Islamists, Muslim Brothers, tribal figures and recent defectors from the camp of Colonel Qaddafi. The West should recognise the council as a transitional government, provided that it promises to hold multiparty elections. Above all, there must be no military occupation by outsiders. It is tempting to put time-limits on such a venture, but that would be futile.

Success in Libya is not guaranteed—how could it be? It is a violent country that may well succumb to more violence, and will not become a democracy any time soon. But its people deserve to be spared the dictator’s gun and be given a chance of a better future.

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If you hold your nerve or keep your nerve, you remain calm and determined in a difficult situation.
"With Relish" (I do it and enjoy doing it...)
Whatever the course of the coming weeks and months
In the narrowest of senses,
Nobody in his right mind would intervene there