The
real threat to U.S. national security
By
RICHARD HAASS | 10/7/13 3:21 PM EDT
The
United States faces a number of serious challenges from abroad, including a
more assertive China, terrorists, climate change, a North Korea with nuclear
weapons and an Iran close to having them, and a turbulent Middle East. But the
greatest threat to American national security comes from within — from our
own political dysfunction.
The
ongoing shutdown of the federal government is only the most recent example of
this reality. It comes against the backdrop of sequestration (which cuts
spending without regard to its economic consequences and fails to protect
investment in the physical and human capital needed to make this country
competitive over the long term) and the pending vote to raise the debt ceiling,
the failure of which to pass would push interest rates higher, causing both economic
growth and markets to plummet.
Some
observers have noted the dangers posed to U.S. security by the shutdown, citing
the furlough of federal employees who provide intelligence that helps keep us
safe. This is true, but the consequences of what is going on (and not going on)
within Congress and between Congress and the White House threaten U.S. national
security in other, even more significant ways.
Foreign
policy and a country’s reputation are as much about what it is as what it does.
This country sacrificed an enormous amount in both lives and treasure in trying
to spread democracy to the greater Middle East. One can argue the wisdom of
having tried to do so, but what cannot be argued is that we are now
discrediting democracy by shutting down our own government. The appeal of
the American economic model took a major hit from the events of 2008; now we
are doing the same to our political model. No one should be surprised when
official entreaties to Egyptians go ignored, or when elites in China and other
authoritarian societies conclude that their approach, for all its flaws, is
still preferable to ours.
Even
more dangerous is the likelihood that political disorder here at home will lead
to political disorder abroad. The most important currency for a great power is
to be reliable and predictable. Friends and allies count on it, as it is their
principal source of security. Actual and would-be foes also need to take U.S.
capacities and commitments into account, as they know that certain actions on
their part will trigger a U.S. response, possibly military retaliation. In
return, the United States derives influence and a more stable world.
America’s
reputation for reliability was already suffering before the shutdown, in large
part because of President Obama’s uncertain handling of the Syria crisis. The
eleventh-hour decision to ask Congress for the authority to carry out limited
military strikes against a Syrian government that had used chemical weapons was
a source of dismay even to those who questioned the wisdom of the strikes
themselves – especially as most observers judged this Congress would not
support such Obama’s request.
Now
comes the cancellation of the president’s trip to Asia, making a mockery of the
“pivot” or rebalancing to that part of the world and away from the Middle East,
which was the big strategic theme of Obama’s foreign policy. The result is that
small countries in the region are more likely to acquiesce to Chinese demands,
while stronger countries, such as Japan, are more likely to take it upon
themselves to stand up to China. One can hear the tectonic plates shifting in a
part of the world destined to shape much of the trajectory of the 21st century.
Meanwhile,
in the Middle East, uncertainty about U.S. behavior has led a number of
longstanding partners to discount U.S. preferences and simply conduct their own
foreign policy. One sees this in Saudi policy toward Egypt and Syria — and we
could well see more of it in Israel’s policy toward Iran.
Speaking
of Iran, it is unclear that Obama could persuade Congress to go along with any
easing of sanctions, sure to be a necessary part of any deal limiting Iran’s
nuclear program. The same holds for trade policy: Even if the U.S. trade
representative manages to conclude negotiations with his Asian counterparts, no
one can predict with confidence that an increasingly isolationist Congress
would go along.
So
where will divisions inside the Beltway lead us in the world outside? The short
answer is that American political dysfunction is hastening the emergence of a post-American world. It is not that the
primacy of the United States will come to be replaced by anyone else – no other
country has the capacity or habits to take on such a role – but rather that
this world will be one defined by growing disarray. A failure of governance in
the United States is leading to a failure of governance in the world.
Americans
are kidding themselves if they think they can insulate themselves from such a
world. Globalization will visit us, whether we like it or not, whether we are
ready or not.
So
Americans should see the government shutdown and what it represents for what it
is: a threat to this country’s national security. Those who oppose
Obamacare should try to amend or repeal it thorough normal legislative
processes; failing that, they should try to elect those who are like-minded. In
the meantime, the government must open, including ensuring that the United
States meets its obligations, financial and otherwise. If this requires the
White House and the Congress meeting halfway, so be it. It is time to put
country before party and politics.
Richard
Haass is president of the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of
Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America’s House in Order.
