S.Korean presidential
candidate vows unconditional aid for North
Reuters. 8/17/12 By
Jane Chung
SEOUL, Aug 17
(Reuters) - Moon Jae-in, the most popular South Korean opposition presidential
candidate, said on Friday that if elected this year he would offer no strings
attached economic aid to North Korea in a radical departure from current policy
that has seen ties between the two states frozen.
Moon, 59, a former
human rights lawyer and confidant of ex-president Roh Moo-hyun whose policies
of openness to the North were overturned by conservative President Lee
Myung-bak, said that engagement was key to moving beyond the current stalemate
between the two states, which remain technically at war.
"I would like to
handle North Korea issues comprehensively. The current Lee Myung-bak
administration has certain preconditions to resume talks with Pyongyang, saying
we will not respond to the North unless it gives up its nuclear ambition.
However, such approach makes both sides hard to take a step further," Moon
told journalists at a briefing.
There have been signs
recently that North Korea's new ruler Kim Jong-un is more willing to open up
than his father who he succeeded in December in a bid to revive the
impoverished country's ailing economy, which is fraction of the size of the
South's.
Rare Earth Mania
Peterson Institute for
International Economics. 8/17/12 By Marcus Noland
Rare earth metals have
been in the news quite a bit due to growing concerns about China’s ability to
exploit its market dominance in the production of these important inputs to
electronics. Leonid Petrov recently
created a stir with a piece in the Asia Times titled “Rare Earths Bankroll
North Korea’s Future” which argued that the country’s rare earth
deposits could allow North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to enrich the country
without reforming and that South Korea is cooperating with North Korea to
exploit its rare earth deposits. Petrov
envisions a future in which “The export of rare earth metals will replenish the
state coffers; stimulate the loyalty of the elites to Kim Jong-Un’s autocratic
rule; and secure the growth of consumption among the ordinary people,” nicely
encapsulates the resource curse issue that I addressed in an earlier
post. Petrov concludes that “Although
the political regime will remain dictatorial, the idea of unification with the
South by war or absorption will soon become meaningless. The purges of
political elites and the mass starving of ordinary people in North Korea will
cease. Gradually the level of prosperity in the two halves of the divided Korea
will start equalizing, opening more opportunities for greater exchange and
cooperation.”
Having already been
asked by one journalist to comment on the story, I asked my colleague Gary
Hufbauer, who has been following the rare earth metals story for some time for
a reaction. He struck a somewhat more skeptical note, observing that the
processing technology for rare earths metals is “extremely complicated” with
only China, Japan, and a few places in Europe having processing plants. So while North Korea might have substantial
deposits, it will probably be several years before it can acquire the
processing technology. Meanwhile, any
shipments will be exported as relatively low value ore and probably require
complementary investments in the dilapidated transportation infrastructure.
And until that occurs,
it might be a little early to celebrate Rare Earth….
N. Korea may own 48
nuclear weapons by 2015: report
Yonhap News Agency.
8/17/12 By Lee Chi-dong
WASHINGTON, Aug. 16
(Yonhap) -- North Korea may build up to 48 nuclear weapons, both based on
plutonium and uranium, by 2015 or 2016 unless negotiations and other proper
measures are implemented to head off such a potential threat, a U.S. think tank
report said Thursday.
The Institute for
Science and International Security (ISIS) admitted the difficulty in obtaining accurate
information on the secretive communist nation's nuclear capability.
It used scientific and
statistical data to estimate Pyongyang's nuclear weapons arsenal under various
scenarios.
If North Korea
operates only one centrifuge plant, it is projected to have 28-39 nuclear
weapons by the end of 2016, or an increase of 16 weapons since the end of 2011,
according to the report.
The 40-page report was
co-authored by David Albright, head of the Washington-headquartered ISIS, and
Christina Walrond, a research associate.
"If North Korea
has two centrifuge plants, however, it could produce a much larger quantity of
WGU (weapons-grade uranium). It could have 37-48 nuclear weapons, or an
increase of 25 weapons, most of which would be produced in 2015 and 2016,"
they said.
North Korea has worked
on a plutonium-based nuclear program for decades and it conducted underground
nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
The international
community suspects Pyongyang is now pushing for another method -- uranium
enrichment.
In a report published
earlier this week, based on satellite imagery, the ISIS said it expects North
Korea to complete the construction of a new light-water reactor at Yongbyon as
early as in the latter half of 2013.
North Korea is widely
believed to have six to 18 plutonium-based nuclear weapons.
"North Korea is
not thought to be currently making weapon-grade plutonium," Albright and
Walrond said, adding it could resume such production in 2015 and 2016.
They stressed talks
remain a useful way to cap North Korea's uranium enrichment program and block
the use of the light-water reactor (LWR) to make weapons-grade plutonium.
"If negotiations
resume, the issue of the experimental LWR should be taken up," they said.
Jang Meets Top Chinese
Leaders
Daily NK. 8/17/12 By
Hwang Chang Hyun
Entering the final leg
of his official visit to China, Jang Sung Taek had individual face-to-face
talks with both President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao in Beijing earlier
today.
According to the
Chinese state media, Jang thanked President Hu for making time for the meeting
despite China's impending 18th Party Congress (which is scheduled for this
October). He also conveyed warm greetings from "the supreme leader of the
Chosun Workers' Party, state and People's Army, Marshal Kim Jong Eun."
For his part, Hu is
said to have offered Jang congratulations on the successful completion of the
3rd meeting of the DPRK-China Joint Guidance Committee for the joint
development of the Rasun and Hwanggeumpyong-Wihwa Island Special Economic
Zones, before conveying "words of consolation on the behalf of the
Communist Party, Chinese government and people for the considerable loss of
life and damage to property caused by recent flooding in some regions."
Hu also expressed his
pleasure at Jang's visit, commending him on his contribution to the development
of Sino-North Korean relations.
In their later
meeting, Wen Jiabao also commented on the recent flooding before adding that he
hoped Jang's visit would lead to a major step forward in bilateral relations.
Jang's visit has been
heavily focused on economic issues, including not only the 3rd meeting of the
DPRK-China Joint Guidance Committee on the 14th but also visits to Jilin
Province and Liaoning Province on the 15th and 16th to discuss support for
North Korean development with local leaders.
He also met on
Thursday with Wang Jiarui, the head of the Communist Party of China's
International Department.
"Jang hailed
efforts by the Chinese side to develop the zones. He said the DPRK is willing
to make joint efforts with China to firmly implement the important consensus
reached by both leaders so as to lift the traditional DPRK-China friendship to
a new height," a report carried by the state-run Xinhua today explained,
adding, "The two sides also exchanged views on their domestic situations
and other issues of common concern."
China's Wen urges
North Korea to let the market help revamp economy
Reuters. 8/18/12
(Reuters) - Premier
Wen Jiabao encouraged North Korea to allow "market mechanisms" help
revamp its economy, state media said on Saturday, and laid down other
pre-conditions as China tries to wean its impoverished ally off its dependence
on Chinese aid.
Wen's comments
followed his meeting with Jang Song-thaek, the powerful uncle of North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un, in Beijing on Friday. Jang is the highest-profile North Korean
official to visit China since Kim power in December 2011.
As well as allowing
freer rein to market forces, the Chinese premier also recommended Pyongyang
encourage economic growth by improving laws and regulations, encouraging
business investment and reforming its customs services.
China's President Hu
Jintao also met Jang in a clear show of
support for the North and its new leadership. Jang is seen as the driving force
behind reforms that the isolated and destitute North is believed to be trying
and for which it desperately needs Chinese backing.
Beijing has had
difficulty managing the relationship with North Korea, which it views as a
strategically critical buffer between itself and U.S. military forces in South
Korea.
But North Korea is
often more cantankerous than China would like, in particular towards South
Korea, even though the economic relationship between China and South Korea is
far more important. Bilateral ties are also not always smooth.
In May, North Korea
seized a number of Chinese fishermen and boats in the Yellow Sea and
demanded 1.2 million yuan for their release.
China has expressed
unhappiness with North Korea's nuclear weapons program, particularly
with nuclear tests that have been conducted near the Chinese border, and is
quietly lobbying against future tests.
Beijing has supported
international sanctions against the North in the past, and has also
occasionally cut off economic aid, including critical oil shipments, but the
desperate state of the North's economy has limited its leverage in Pyongyang.
Experts and government
sources who spoke to Reuters say China cannot go too far with such sanctions
for fear of destabilizing the regime entirely, prompting a flow of refugees
across the border into China.
China and North Korea
have moved to intensify economic cooperation through development zones in Rason
on the North's east coast, and in the border area of Hwanggumphyong.
So far North Korea has
received around $300 million in non-financial direct investment from about 100
Chinese companies, mainly in the food, medicine, electronics, mining, light
industry, chemicals and textile sectors.
China's exports to
North Korea rose 20.6 percent last year to $2.28 billion from 2010, while imports
plunged 81.4 percent to $147.4 million, according to Chinese customs figures.
Those numbers are
dwarfed by trade with South Korea, China's third-largest trading partner.
