Exclusive: Kim to
reform North Korean economy after purge: source
Reuters. 7/20/12 By
Benjamin Kang Lim
(Reuters) -
Impoverished North Korea is gearing up to experiment with agricultural and
economic reforms after young leader Kim Jong-un and his powerful uncle purged
the country's top general for opposing change, a source with ties to both
Pyongyang and Beijing said.
The source added that
the cabinet had created a special bureau to take control of the decaying
economy from the military, one of the world's largest, which under Kim's father
was given pride of place in running the country.
The downfall of Vice
Marshal Ri Yong-ho and his allies gives the untested new leader and his uncle
Jang Song-thaek, who married into the Kim family dynasty and is widely seen as
the real power behind the throne, the mandate to try to save the battered
economy and prevent the secretive regime's collapse.
The source has
correctly predicted events in the past, including North Korea's first nuclear
test in 2006 days before it was conducted, as well as the ascension of Jang.
The changes could
herald the most significant reforms by the North in decades. Previous attempts
at a more market driven economy have floundered, most recently a drastic
currency revaluation in late 2009 which triggered outrage and is widely
believed to have resulted in the execution of its chief proponent.
"Ri Yong-ho was
the most ardent supporter of Kim Jong-il's 'military first' policy," the
source told Reuters, referring to Kim Jong-un's late father who plunged the
North deeper into isolation over its nuclear ambitions, abject poverty and
political repression.
The biggest problem
was that he opposed the government taking over control of the economy from the
military, the source said, requesting anonymity to avoid repercussions.
North Korea's state
news agency KCNA had cited illness for the surprise decision to relieve Ri of
all his posts, including the powerful role of vice chairman of the ruling
party's Central Military Commission, though in recent video footage he had
appeared in good health.
Ri was very close to
Kim Jong-il and had been a leading figure in the military. Ri's father fought
against the Japanese alongside Kim Jong-il's late father Kim Il-sung, who
founded North Korea and is still revered as its eternal president.
The revelation by the
source was an indication of a power struggle in the secretive state in which
Kim Jong-un and Jang look to have further consolidated political and military
power.
Kim Jong-un was named
Marshal of the republic this week in a move that adds to his glittering array
of titles and cements his position following the death of his father in
December. He already heads the Workers' Party of Korea and is first chairman of
the National Defence Commission.
The North Korean
Embassy in Beijing, reached by telephone, declined to comment.
REFORMS
Some North Korea
experts said the comments confirmed their belief that the new leadership would
try to make some changes to the stultifying controls over the economy.
"This should not
come as a surprise. Kim Jong-un appears to have done considerable study on this
(reform), taken a lot of lessons, and is probably trying to mould it in a way
that suits their situation and in a way that blends with the existing policy.
Ri's departure has a lot to do with this process," said Korea University
professor Yoo Ho-yeol, speaking from Seoul.
He predicted that Jang
would increasing press ahead with joint-venture projects with China, the only
major ally to which the North can turn for economic help.
But Zhang Lianggui, a
North Korea expert at China's Central Party School, was skeptical.
"You can see this
from the repeated criticisms of reform and opening up that appear in the Rodong
Sinmun (North Korean party newspaper). They openly criticize any moves in this
direction. North Korea is quite indignant when it comes to this point."
POLITICAL BUREAU
A North Korea's
cabinet has created a "political bureau" designed to wrest power from
the 1.2 million-strong military in order to run the economy, which has been in
shambles after a crippling famine in the 1990s, the source said.
"In the past, the
cabinet was empty with no say in the economy. The military controlled the
economy, but that will now change," the source said.
Kim Jong-un has set up
an "economic reform group" in the ruling Workers' Party to look at
agricultural and economic reforms, the source said, adding that North Korea
will learn from its giant neighbor and solitary benefactor, China.
Beijing leaders are
thought to have been pressing Pyongyang to do more to reform the economy,
worried that a collapse of the North could send refugees streaming across its
border, and cause the loss of a strategic buffer to South Korea and the large
contingent of U.S. troops which help protect it.
It was unclear who
will head the cabinet's "political bureau" and the party's "economic
reform group", but change was inevitable, the source said.
In sharp contrast to
the austere, reclusive image of his father, state media have shown Kim Jong-un
visiting fun fairs, speaking in public and applauding at a rock concert.
Women appear to have
been given more freedoms, including wearing short skirts, although 200,000
people are in prison camps in the impoverished and isolated country.
The source dismissed
speculation of any political fallout from the purge, saying: "Kim Jong-un
and Jang Song-thaek are in control of the military."
Jang has long been
seen as a proponent of reform of an economy which through mismanagement has
entirely missed out on the fruits of dramatic growth of neighbors like China
and South Korea.
His push for reform
was widely seen as having triggered a period of exile but he was later
rehabilitated and given the primary role of supporting Kim Jong-il's son when
he was being groomed to eventually take over the leadership.
North Korea has yet to
name Ri's replacement as head of the army, the source said.
It was unclear how
many of Ri's men have been sacked, but the source said they have not been
jailed. An assessment of the changes by the South Korean government seen by
Reuters, said that some 20 top officials had been purged since Kim Jong-un
began his ascent to power.
Crippling Missile
Guidelines Could Ground New Drone
The Chosun Ilbo.
7/19/12
A mid-to-high-altitude
reconnaissance drone South Korea developed at a cost of W180 billion could be
grounded unless Seoul is able to renegotiate crippling missile guidelines with
the U.S. (US$1=W1,143). Diplomatic sources in Seoul on Wednesday said the U.S.
insists that fuel be included in the limit on the payload of South Korean
missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles.
The payload typically
includes bombs, missiles, and electronic equipment, but not fuel. According to
experts, a UAV carries almost 2,000 kg of fuel, so if that is included in the
payload limit it could never take off while the limit remains at 500 kg.
The low-altitude UAV
Songgolmae
South Korea has been
developing electronic optical, infrared, imaging and data equipment UAVs in
line with the 500 kg payload limit. The latest drone is set to go on its first
test flight at the end of this year. It is capable of monitoring targets 100 km
away from an altitude of 10 km, raising hopes that it would play a pivotal role
in reconnaissance operations against North Korea.
At present, the South
Korean military operates only a low-altitude UAV that conducts reconnaissance
missions at an altitude of 3 km. "The U.S. does not include fuel in the
payload weight for its own drones, so it does not make sense to apply that rule
on us," a defense industry source said.
WASHINGTON, July 17
(Yonhap) -- Executives from HSBC Holdings admitted Tuesday that the largest
European bank had some loopholes in controlling transactions involving North
Korea and other "rogue states."
A group of top HSBC
officials appeared at a U.S. Senate hearing a day after the Senate released a
330-page report accusing the London-based bank of exposing the U.S. financial
system to North Korea, Iran, and Cuba as well as terrorists groups and Mexican
drug cartels.
HSBC had transactions
with North Korea in breach of U.S. sanctions rules, according to the report.
A host of North Korean
entities and officials have been subject to U.S. and U.N. sanctions for the
regime's nuclear and ballistic missile developments.
Sen. Carl Levin
(D-MI), who chaired the hearing, said HSBC "sets up a U.S. bank affiliate
as its gateway into the U.S. financial system and lets its global network of
affiliates abuse that gateway."
He added problems
arose when "some HSBC affiliates tried to circumvent the Treasury's Office
of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) filter to send potentially prohibited
transactions involving other countries like Sudan or North Korea."
The OFAC has the
Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List of individuals and entities that have
been subject to sanctions under the range of sanctions programs.
By Chris Green [2012-07-18
17:10 ]
The 2012 North Korean
Human Rights International Film Festival begins in a Washington DC church later
tonight with a showing of two of the most famous films in the modern North
Korean human rights canon, ‘Winter Butterfly’ and ‘North Korea VJ’.
U.S. Digs in Heels in
Missile Talks with Korea
The Chosun llbo.
7/18/12
South Korea is having
trouble persuading the U.S. to extend its permissible missile range and
payload. The U.S. is apparently insisting on a trade-off clause in a bilateral
agreement that says if the maximum range is extended from the current 300 km,
then the weight of the warhead must be reduced from the present 500 kg.
"The U.S. is
steadfastly opposed to our demands to boost the range of our missiles to
800-1,000 km in order to deal with a North Korean threat," a government
official here said on Tuesday. "It's unwilling to change its stance that
any extension in range would require the size of the payload to remain the same
as the present limit or be reduced."
But experts here say a
warhead weighing less than 500 kg would not pack much of a punch unless it is a
nuclear payload.
"If we follow the
U.S. proposal, then there would be no point in extending the range of our
missiles since we do not have nuclear warheads," a military expert at a
state-run think tanks said. "A warhead weighing more than 500 kg is
essential to destroy North Korean missile bases or nuclear facilities located
in deep underground bunkers," said another.
Ballistic missiles
like the Hyunmu-2 presently operated by the South Korean military carry
warheads that do not exceed 500 kg, but North Korean missiles are apparently
equipped with warheads weighing between 650 kg to 1 ton. China's ballistic
missiles carry warheads that weigh up to three tons, and Russia has 8.8 ton
warheads.
How U.S. Government
“Reads” North Korea
NK News. 7/17/12 by
Brian Martens
On July 12, The Korea
Society hosted a breakfast discussion entitled “Reading North Korea”. The speaker was Dr. Sue Mi Terry, former
Director for Asia at the National Security Council under both Presidents George
W. Bush and Barack Obama. In her
presentation, she explained her daily activities working at the NSC and the
difficulties of obtaining information on the Hermit Kingdom. Dr. Terry pointed out current events in North
Korea and explained how some portions of life have changed, while others
remained rigidly the same. Finally, she
speculated on what would be needed going forward to push towards a unified
peninsula.
Unlike most countries
where credible information on topics such as population, economic development,
and technology can be easily obtained, analysts who cover North Korea do not
have such ease. Dr. Terry described
sifting through hundreds of embassy reports, intelligence findings, and any
type of communications that had been obtained, adding that it was “one of the
most frustrating countries to cover.”
Even after pouring over this plethora of information, it was then
necessary to determine the quality of the source and to determine if some of
this information was purposely incorrect.
“When Kim Jong-Un came into the spotlight, we knew shockingly little
about him,” Dr. Terry explained.
Although the process
of gathering correct information is laborious, there are numerous facts that
have emerged. The succession process
from the late Kim Jong-Il to the current leader has been moving along smoothly. The overall situation is “becoming a little
more normal”, although is far from what most nations would call normal. North Korea is still, as Dr. Terry
proclaimed, “a failing state”, due to its reliance on other nations, mainly
China. Kim Jong-Un has been more visible
and vocal than his father, making frequent speeches in public. He is attempting to grasp the hearts of the
youth of the DPRK, knowing that they are the future of the nation. Unfortunately, as Dr. Terry pointed out,
“from what we do know, there is little prospect of change in the immediate
future.” North Korea is unlikely to
dismantle its nuclear program. After seeing the recent events in Libya, the
thought of removing nuclear arms seems even less likely. “It is one of the few advantages that they
have over the South”, explained Terry.
The “Leap Day
Agreement” with the United States probably best displays the flip-flop nature
of the current regime, mirroring practice of the former regime. On February 29, North Korea agreed to suspend
work at its uranium enrichment plant in Yongbyon, in exchange for 240,000 tons
of food aid and to allow inspectors back into the country after a 3 year
absence. This appeared to be a positive
achievement for both countries involved.
Two weeks later, Pyongyang announced that they were going ahead with a
satellite launch in April to coincide with the anniversary of the birth of Kim
Il-Sung. The U.S. warned that a launch
would disrupt the latest agreements, but the DPRK went ahead with the launch regardless. This launch was planned before Kim Jong-Un
came into power and was going to happen.
Dr. Terry was floored by the obscure timing of the agreement and stated
that “North Korea should have waited until after the launch to discuss food
aid”.
Terry pointed out that
the U.S., along with the surrounding nations of South Korea, Japan, and China,
need to now improve their dialog with North Korea. She explained that China would have to take
the biggest role and “shift their thinking” on what North Korea is and what it
can provide. This could be difficult, as
a united peninsula may not be the best scenario for China because they see the
DPRK as a buffer between themselves and South Korea. A unified Korea would not rely as heavily on
China as the North currently does.
Dr. Terry stated that
North Koreans are becoming more aware of the world outside of their borders
each year. Cell phone usage, legal and
illegal, has risen sharply. DVD’s
continue to be smuggled into the country, providing citizens with information
on how the rest of the world lives.
South Korean soap operas are in great demand and Sue Terry described
that many of the defectors knew the names of the characters on these
shows. She also explained that a
“trigger” was necessary, such as Mohammad Bouazizi in Tunisia, to push the nation
towards reunification. When asked if the
population may become uneasy at the end of 2012 for realizing that the regime
was unable to provide a better country for its people as promised, Dr. Terry
said that this was unlikely. She
revealed that a change would need to take place from, “the top down.”
Essentially, there would need to be discord among the elite in order to promote
a change.
In closing, North
Korea continues to be difficult to obtain concrete information about. Regardless of the increase in mobile phones,
satellite imagery, and intelligence reports, gaining additional insight into
the DPRK is still a challenge. This
challenge increases the difficulty in being able to communicate with them,
which decreases the chances for substantial changes. There are possibilities of
changes from within, but the likelihood of this happening is slim.
SOFA Follies:
Double-Parked
Peterson Institute for
International Economics. 7/17/12 By Stephan Haggard and Jaesung Ryu
Alliance relations
often hinge on the personal: events that critics—and broader publics—see as
emblematic of the larger relationship. The most tragic example from recent
history came in 2002, when two high school girls were run over by a US armored
vehicle (a thorough re-telling from an American military perspective can be
found at ROK Drop). More recently, we reviewed some of the issues surrounding
the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) in the context of a rape charge brought
against a US soldier (here and here).
But who would have
guessed that a parking incident near Osan Air Base would become the latest PR
challenge for the alliance? The bad moment came when three South Korean civilians
were handcuffed by US MPs after one was asked to move a vehicle out of a
no-parking zone. As anyone who has spent time in Korea knows, norms about
double-parking are simply different; more like New York. An early account
claimed that the truck was parked in a front of a shop to unload, but the shop
owner told the MPs that the van would be moved after finishing his meal.
Escalation ensued as the shop owner protested, others were drawn into the fray,
and the MPs and the Korean civilians ultimately tussled. In the end, half a
dozen MPs were involved in handcuffing three Koreans and taking them to the
main gate of the base, about 500 feet away from the scene. The civilians were
ultimately released, but not before the whole incident had gone viral on the internet
and in the Korean media.
Whether under public
pressure or from genuine dismay, the South Korean foreign ministry made a
formal complaint and summoned the USFK Deputy Commander. General James Thurman,
USFK Commander and his deputy Lieutenant General Jan-Marc Jouas immediately released
a public apology.
Nonetheless,
controversy still exists with regards to the MP’s claim that their actions were
legal. South Korean critics made reference to Article 22, paragraph 10(a) and
10(b) of the SOFA which read as follows:
“10. (a) Regularly constituted military units
or formations of the United States armed forces shall have the right to police
any facilities or areas which they use under Article II of this Agreement. The
military police of such forces may take all appropriate measures to ensure the
maintenance of order and security within such facilities and areas.
(b) Outside these
facilities and areas, such military police shall be employed only subject to
arrangements with the authorities of the Republic of Korea and in liaison with
those authorities, and insofar as such employment is necessary to maintain
discipline and order among the members of the United States armed forces, or
ensure their security.”
Clearly, there are
still issues to be resolved about off-base patrols by US MPs as well as
coordination with South Korean authorities. According to Yonhap, the SOFA Joint
Committee, made up of U.S. and South Korean officials, will meet to discuss the
issue. But the broader point, sadly, is that support for the alliance is always
fragile and subject to the play of emotions as well as reason; welcome to the
human race.
We close with a story
about one of our colleagues at UCSD, a physicist, who figured out how to beat a
parking ticket using a little science; we will put him in touch with our
aggrieved Korean friends next time out.
UN agency slammed
after refusing US request for probe into Iran, N. Korea shipments
Fox News. 7/17/12
A United Nations
agency under fire for shipments of computers and other sophisticated equipment
to North Korea and Iran has apparently rejected a request by the U.S. State
Department to conduct an independent probe into the controversy, drawing a
pointed bipartisan rebuke from top lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
In a letter being
released Tuesday, the leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee complained
to World Intellectual Property Organization Director General Francis Gurry
about his agency's refusal to cooperate. They accused the agency of locking
down key documents while trying to root out the whistle-blowers who alerted
others to the scandal -- and then rebuffing the State Department's request for
an outside investigation.
"We are outraged
by your recent refusal on the basis of 'confidentiality,' of a request by the
U.S. Department of State to conduct an independent, external investigation into
how and why these transactions happened," wrote Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen,
R-Fla., and Howard Berman, D-Calif., chairwoman and ranking member of the
committee, respectively. "There is no rational basis for this refusal. ... On the face of it, the documentary record,
coupled with your public statements, shows a shocking and intolerable lack of
judgment, together with an inclination to disregard the legitimate concerns of
Member States and to retaliate against staff who are simply trying to tell the
truth.
