N. Korean leader to
visit Iran for int'l meeting: news report
Yonhap News Agency.
8/21/12 By Lee Chi-dong
WASHINGTON, Aug. 21
(Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un plans to visit Iran next
week to attend an international meeting, a news report said Tuesday.
For his first state
visit since taking power in December, Kim is scheduled to join the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)
summit in Teheran from August 26 to 31, the German news agency DPA said, citing
a local media report.
The NAM consists of
120 member states and 21 observer states that consider themselves not aligned
to any major power bloc.
A meeting among the
heads of member states is held every few years.
The venue for this
year's NAM summit is apparently sensitive to the U.S. as Teheran remains
defiant to international efforts to end its nuclear program.
The U.S. government
said earlier this week that Iran does not deserve to host a summit of
non-aligned nations.
The United Nations
mission in Teheran reportedly said in a statement that UN Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon was still planning to attend.
North Korea's
ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong-nam, who ranks second in the
communist nation's power hierachy, attended the previous NAM summit in Egypt
in 2009.
South Korea, which is not a NAM member, often
sends its own delegation to the summit as an observer.
Food Distribution
Centers Selling Food
Daily NK. 8/21/12 By
Kim Kwang Jin
At least some of North
Korea’s food distribution centers, places that have traditionally been used
to distribute rations to people working for smaller factories and enterprises,
have begun to sell corn, an inside source has informed
Daily NK.
“The food distribution
center started selling grain on the 18th,” the source told Daily NK. “They
explained that this was just for those people working for factories operating
on a ‘self-sustaining’ basis, but in reality there was no limitation
on who could buy it.”
However, the source
went on, “There is a fixed quantity of corn that any one individual can buy, so
large purchases are impossible.”
This is the first
time outside the Rasun Special Administrative Region that such food
distribution centers, which are operated at the city, town and county level
by provincial food procurement bureaus, have been legally permitted to sell
grain.
Under the ‘June
28th Policy’, larger factories and other enterprises run by the state are
reportedly to adhere to the existing distribution system, but workers in the
approximate equivalent of North Korean SMEs (small and medium sized
enterprises) are to receive their wages in cash only, ending their
access to what remnants of the rationing system survived the famine of the
1990s. Allowing food distribution centers to sell grain appears to be one way
to make this altered system more viable for those laborers.
However, the source
expressed serious doubts whether the food distribution center would be able to
secure sufficient supplies of food to sell under such a system over the long
term, especially if it grows to encompass sales of other grains besides corn.
In Rasun, a system under which the municipal Party
committee buys food supplies from China then sells them to local people and
pays off the debt with the proceeds has been in place for some years; however,
a broad decline in the quality and quantity of grain available at below market
prices in this way eventually pushed many people back into the market.
Park poised to talk
with North Korea
The Korea Times.
8/21/12 By Kim Young-jin
Conservative
presidential hopeful Park Geun-hye appears poised to reengage North Korea if
elected, analysts said Tuesday, but her approach with the recalcitrant neighbor
remains vague.
Park, nominated by the
ruling Saenuri Party the previous day, says building trust is the key to
better cross-border relations. To do so, she says she will seek economic
projects and provide humanitarian aid regardless of political tensions.
But she also says the
North must live up to inter-Korean and international agreements and that
Pyongyang’s provocations will be met with severe consequences.
Park’s nomination sets
in motion a shift toward engagement with North Korea after polls showed fatigue
with President Lee Myung-bak’s hard line, which has failed to yield immediate
results. The push to reengage is seen as necessary to combat China’s
increasing influence on its impoverished, yet resource-rich ally.
Some watchers say,
however, Park has failed to answer basic questions concerning her stance. Some
question how her government would react if Pyongyang’s authoritarian leaders do
not show a desire to build trust or what her “tough line” against provocations
entailed. As one analyst put it, “trust is great, but what if there is no trust
to build upon?”
Watchers say a
litmus test will be how Park handles the current administration’s position
that the North should apologize for two deadly provocations in 2010
ahead of deeper interaction. “If she asks for the apologies, what will her
administration do if the North ignores the demand?” the analyst said.
It also remains to be
seen how the North will react toward Park, who in 2002 held talks in Pyongyang
with late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. As the elections have heated up, the North
has toughened its rhetoric against conservative figures, chiding Park for being
“endowed with a dictator’s spirit” in reference to her father, the late
President Park Chung-hee.
Any vagueness,
however, may prove more problematic domestically as some experts say Park could
reach out through secret, high-level contact at the outset of her
administration to plant trust-building seeds.
Meanwhile, liberal
candidates have reaffirmed their will to reprise the Sunshine Policy of aid and
cooperation that was halted by President Lee Myung-bak. Moon Jae-in,
the aide to late President Roh Moo-hyun and presidential frontrunner for the
main opposition Democratic United Party has said he would reprise a policy of
unconditional engagement pursued by past liberal Presidents ― which was
controversial ― and seek a summit with new North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Experts here express
greater caution about China’s sway over its neighbor, with worries that
heightened last week when Jang Song-thaek, a high-ranking aide to Kim, visited
Beijing in a bid to shore up economic cooperation.
The sides signed deals
to accelerate joint development of economic zones near their border. Beijing
has built a road into Rason, one of the zones, giving landlocked Jilin and
Heilongjiang Provinces access to Rajin, the region’s northern-most port.
Hong Kong Investor to
Revive Shinuiju SAR
Daily NK. 8/21/12 By
Kim Tae Hong
North Korea has
entered into an agreement on the development of the Shinuiju Special Administrative Region (SAR) with a Hong
Kong-based investment group, South Korean broadcaster YTN reported today.
Shinuiju was first
turned into an SAR by the North Korean authorities in September 2002, whereupon
a 41-year old Chinese-Dutch businessman called Yang Bin was appointed
its first head by the Supreme People’s Assembly. However, even before Yang Bin
could begin working on the project, he was arrested and charged with tax
evasion and other crimes related to a Dutch-themed development project outside
Shenyang, Liaoning Province.
However, that project
has seemingly been revived, according to YTN, which cited a source in Beijing
as saying, “North Korea has signed a contract for the development of Shinuiju
with a Hong-Kong investment company, ‘Dajunghwa International Group’. The two
sides will form a joint venture with a fixed stake each, and advance the
development of Shinuiju that way.”
The investment company
involved operates in a number of different fields, according to the source,
including finance, real estate, ports and energy. Jang Sung Taek is said to
have explained the nature of the deal to the Chinese during his recent trip to
Beijing; however, no Chinese government money is said to be involved.
Iran confirms NK’s
leader won’t attend NAM summit
The Korea Times.
8/22/12
Iran has confirmed North
Korean leader Kim Jong-un will not attend a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit
to be hosted by Tehran next week, a senior Seoul official said Wednesday,
denying a published foreign news report that Kim would take part.
Iran confirmed that
North Korea's ceremonial head of state, Kim Yong-nam, will attend the summit,
the official said,
China to North Korea:
if you build it, we will come
Peterson Institute for
International Economics. 8/22/12 By Marcus Noland
So maybe Hu Jintao did
not literally say “if you build it, we will come,” (I doubt that he’s a fan of
either baseball or Kevin Costner) but it would seem reasonable to assume a
certain degree of Chinese frustration with North Korea’s reluctance to embrace
economic reform, and a willingness to support such a process if North Korea
were to take the first steps. Chinese state media reported that outgoing
Premier Wen Jiabao encouraged North Korea to allow “market mechanisms” help
revamp its economy, and laid down other pre-conditions to, as Reuters put it,
“wean its impoverished ally off its dependence on Chinese aid.” None of the
reporting is definitive, but notable was the absence of an announcement of a
big aid package.
The last time we
checked in on the Hwanggumpyong and Wihwa special economic zone, the Chinese
were throwing in the towel, the North Koreans were planting rice, and rumor had
it that both sides were sending soldiers to the neighborhood. Rason was not
much better off. How quickly things change.
Last week Jang
Sung-taek led a delegation of 50 North Korean officials to China for the third
meeting of the China-DPRK Joint Steering Committee on Cooperation in
Development and Management of the Rason Economic and Trade Zone and the
Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone. At least that was the
justification. According to Xinhua, “the two sides announced the establishment
of the Rason Economic and Trade Zone Management Committee and the
Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone Management Committee; and signed
agreements on establishing and operating the management committees, on economic
and technological cooperation, and on agricultural cooperation; as well as on
power supply, zone construction, and detailed plans for the Rason zone.” The
press agency reported that Rason “will focus on the development of raw and
semi-finished material industry, equipment industry, hi-tech industries, light
industry, service sector, and modern efficient agriculture, and will gradually
become the DPRK’s advanced manufacturing base, as well as an international
logistics center, and regional tourism center of northeast Asia. The
Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa Islands Economic Zone …will focus on the development
of information industry, tourism culture innovation industry, modern
agriculture, and garment-making industry to gradually become the DPRK’s new
economic zone of intensive intelligence.” Not sure what that last part means.
Some South Korean sources
claimed that someone as prominent as Jang was not really necessary for these
purposes, and speculated that he was a delivering an explanation of the recent
removal of armed forces Chief-of-Staff Ri Yong-ho. It should also not be
forgotten that Jang has been in the middle of competition to establish a
gate-keeper for FDI: given the importance of China, and the family wealth of
some of the people with whom he met or was thought to have possibly met,
pecuniary motives cannot be completely discounted. Lastly, KREI is now
speculating that due to bad weather, North Korea could end up 1 million metric
tons short of grain this year. No idea if this emerging possibility was on the
agenda, but again, the absence of an announcement of an aid package was striking.
The really critical
point, however, is that when it comes to economic reforms, the North Koreans
are knocking on an open Chinese door. Tired of supporting their mendicant
neighbor, the Chinese are presumably happy to give North Korea a bit of support
if it shows signs of pulling up its own bootstraps. And there’s the rub: while
Xinhua reported that the two governments reaffirmed “government-guided,
enterprise-based, market-oriented, and mutually beneficial” cooperation
(emphasis mine) there is a real difference from the North Korean
perspective of securing more resources from China, and
undertaking potentially destabilizing policy changes.
Indeed, Zhang Liangui,
professor at the CPC Central Party School, went so far to say in an interview
with Zhongguo Tongxun She that the main purpose of Jang’s visit is to
continue to seek Chinese investment in the DPRK. As for reform and opening up, he
asserted that the DPRK still holds a negative attitude, interpreting
the series of policy adjustments made by the DPRK recently as different from
the outsiders’ understandings of reform and opening up. In essence, the
adjustments reflect the DPRK’s shift of the focus of work in different
historical periods, the purpose of which is to seek the international
community’s ultimate recognition of the DPRK’s status as a nuclear power. Stay
tuned.
N. Korea expresses
willingness to discuss flood relief with South aid group
Yonhap News Agency.
8/23/12
SEOUL, Aug. 23
(Yonhap) -- The flood-stricken North Korea has expressed its willingness to
discuss relief aid with South Korea's non-governmental aid group, the
government and the South group said Thursday.
The National
Reconciliation Council, North Korea's organization for promoting friendship
with the South, faxed a reply to the Korea NGO Council for Cooperation with
North Korea after it proposed holding consultations over flood relief aid
recently, according to the aid group.
The non-governmental
council claims a membership of 51 aid groups.
Following the North
group's acceptance and a subsequent letter of invitation, the South
organization applied for the Unification Ministry's approval to visit Pyongyang
for a discussion on Friday, according to the group and a government official.
Two other local
private aid groups have also applied for the ministry's approval for their
North Korea visits next week to hold similar consultations, he said.
S. Korean aid group to
travel to North for flood aid discussion
Yonhap News Agency.
8/23/12
SEOUL, Aug. 23
(Yonhap) -- A non-governmental South Korean aid group will travel to Pyongyang
this week to discuss relief aid for flood-stricken North Korea, Seoul said
Thursday.
The Unification
Ministry, which handles inter-Korean issues, approved the Korea NGO Council for
Cooperation with North Korea's one-day trip to North Korea set for Friday, the
ministry said.
Four officials of the
South aid group will cross the border around 9:00 a.m. for the aid consultation
in Pyongyang and return to the South in the afternoon, according to the
ministry.
U.N. investigation of
computer shipment to North Korea looks to be much less than thorough
Fox News. 8/24/12
The United Nations
agency that shipped American-made computers and sophisticated servers to North
Korea is now attempting to avoid a thorough investigation that includes why the
goods were shipped without either notifying United Nations sanctions committees
that are trying to block the country’s nuclear weapons program, or the U.S.
government.
The probe, announced on Aug. 9 by the
Geneva-based World Intellectual Property Organization, or WIPO, was advertised
at the time as a “full independent external inquiry” to determine whether WIPO
acted in violation of U.N. sanctions against North Korea, which continues to ignore
worldwide demands that it curtail its quest for a deliverable nuclear bomb. The
shipment by WIPO of Hewlett Packard computers and servers to North Korea was
first reported by Fox News.
The U.S. government,
in particular, says it wants to know how it happened that neither U.N.
sanctions committees nor other member-states of WIPO – including the U.S. --
were informed in advance of the shipment of U.S.-manufactured equipment, which
was sent from China to Pyongyang by the United Nations Development Program.
“It is highly unusual,
to say the least, to have an outside consultant report directly to the director
general. . ."
- John Bolton, former
U.S. ambassador to the U.N.
Instead, according to
a WIPO internal document known as the terms of reference for the investigation,
which outlines what exactly will be examined, WIPO says it will merely
“establish the nature and extent of the technical assistance” to North Korea,
the “conformity” of the assistance with a program and budget approved by WIPO
member states, and “the compliance of these activities with the U.N. sanctions
regime applicable to various States.”
It also will make
“recommendations” for improving its procedures in the future. But it will not
attempt to answer the central question of who decided to send sophisticated
technology, unannounced, to North Korea in the first place.
The inquiry is
supposed to report by Sept. 10 and, according to a press release published by
WIPO Wednesday—in the wake of Fox News questions—“will be made available in
full” to WIPO’s 185 member states.
In short, the terms of
reference of the probe—now referred to neutrally as merely a “review”—conform
largely to the defense of WIPO’s actions already put forward by its
controversial director general, Francis Gurry, that there was nothing
inherently wrong with the transfer, and that it was merely business as usual
for the obscure U.N. agency, which largely deals with issues of patent
protection and intellectual property rights around the globe.
U.S. to Expand Missile
Defense in Asia
The Chosun Ilbo.
8/24/12
U.S. defense officials
say the United States is planning to expand its missile defenses in Asia, in
response to threats from North Korea and aggressive moves by China.
News reports Thursday
quoted officials as saying the buildup could include a new radar in southern
Japan and possibly another one in Southeast Asia. The X-band radars would be
linked to missile defense ships and land-based interceptors.
The Wall Street
Journal said the plan is part of the Obama administration's new defense
strategy to shift resources to an Asian-Pacific region critical to the U.S.
economy after a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ahn Cheol-soo on North Korea
Peterson Institute for
International Economics. 8/24/12 By Marcus Noland
South Korea will elect
a new president in December. One interesting figure on the South Korean
political scene is Ahn Cheol-soo, who despite having never held public office,
would be an instantly credible candidate were he to declare. As such, his views
onNorth Korea are of interest. Ahn recently released a book, “Ahn Chul-soo’s
Thoughts,” which touches upon North Korea, though it is far from the central
focus of the book. The Wall Street
Journal’s Min Sun Lee translated these sections. A link to the original source
is provided at the bottom.
Ahn’s vision forSouth
Korea is of “a welfare state, a just state, and peaceful unification.” The last
is a prerequisite for the first two. The persistent tensions associated with
the division of the peninsula impose real costs on South Korea: the “Korea
discount” in which stocks are undervalued and higher defense expenditures than
would be needed otherwise.
“North Korea is a
problem for us to solve, but at the same time it could also be a present for
our future. When peaceful economic cooperation with the North is activated, our
domestic market will expand. North Korea could possibly be a source of growth
momentum since the [South] Korean economy is currently stagnant. We can take
advantage of North Korea’s underground resources, tourist attractions and human
resources, and a new way could open up for building a North-East Asia economic
zone or for a land route from Busan to Paris. In fact, currently South Korea is
much like an island blocked by North Korea. The transportation of export goods
or raw materials will become easier when we get connected to the continent.
This could be an environment where our economy can jump to a higher level. If
South and North gradually narrow the gap through economic cooperation, like how
Germany lowered unification costs by cooperation, Korea can also reduce
unification costs.”
When asked to evaluate
the North Korea policies of South Korea’s recent presidents, Ahn responded that
“The Sunshine Policy made achievements in reducing tension. But there were
controversies over giving them [North Korea] too much and there were
ideological conflicts in the South. Also, there was a lack of transparency in
how the policy was handled.
“Under Lee Myung-bak’s
policy, the South and North conflict worsened because the Lee administration
only used a whip. The Lee hardline policy and mechanical insistence on
reciprocity seemed to be based on a scenario in which the North will collapse
soon. But I don’t think that scenario is persuasive.
“Therefore, based on
this 15 years of experience [since the Sunshine Policy started with Kim
Dae-jung], we need to make a flexible North Korean policy while maintaining a
long-term perspective.”
When asked about the
possibility of a North Korean collapse, Ahn demurred, saying “It’s hard to
think that North Korea will undergo a people’s uprising like the Arab Spring.
That’s because North Korea doesn’t have basic communication foundations like
the Internet or social network services and has such a strong control system over
the people. Even if the international community imposes economic sanctions, I
don’t think North Korea will be isolated since it has China’s support.
Isolation can instead accelerate subordination of the North’s economy to
China.”
In terms of his own
preferred North Korea policy, Ahn indicated that “There seem to exist
conflicting perspectives that see unification as either an incident or a
gradual process. The Lee administration’s perspective is the one that sees it
as an incident. Since he brought up the issue of unification costs, it seems
that he thinks unification will suddenly come one day. I agree with the view
that sees it as a process. As economic exchanges progress, North and South will
become more dependent on each other. The Kaesong complex is a good example. I
think we can reach unification and peace through such cooperation.
“For the future North
and South relationship, North Korean policy, national security policy and
diplomatic policy should not be separated. They should be integrated under a
consistent strategy.
“In the short term, we
need to restart South-North talks and economic cooperation. We need to restart
the Kumgang Mountain and Kaesong city tours, expand the Kaesong Industrial
Complex and gradually take tha Kaesong model to other regions of North Korea.
Also I think it’s important to plan an elaborate strategy for Korean peninsula
after getting a solid understanding of international relations surrounding the
South and North and also of the North’s internal problems.”
Sure, but what about
the nukes? “Denuclearization on the Korean peninsula is a goal we can’t give
up. We need to approach this goal with patience. For this issue, we should
continue seeking an international solution through the six-party talks while
widening our contact [with the North] through economic cooperation. We need to
go step by step in conversations, respecting the internationally agreed
roadmap.”
What about the
fungibility of aid, and the possibility that past assistance supported the
North Korean nuclear program: “There are many analyses saying that even if
South Korea didn’t give North Korea money they would have still developed
nuclear weapon. A former Washington Post reporter, Don Oberdorfer, wrote in a
book that the ‘Team Spirit’ military exercise, which we consider routine, is
viewed as a great threat by the North. It’s the North’s argument that their
nuclear development is a way to sustain their system against a threat from the
U.S.
“Anyway, North Korea
developed nuclear capabilities during a truce. And they are using nuclear
capabilities for the purpose of negotiation or threatening South Korea. Because
of this, the North’s nuclear development has continued regardless of South
Korea’s economic cooperation and the North may have been taking every possible
other measure, including selling mineral resources to China, to raise funds. We
can eliminate the North’s justification to stay nuclear if we achieve a
stabilization of peace and ensure room for the North and South’s conversation.”
To do that, South Korea
needs both the United States and China. But Ahn’s view of balancing the two
could discomfit some: “The basic principle of diplomacy is putting the
country’s benefit first while keeping balance with humanitarian values. Also,
balanced and multilateral diplomacy is important. Especially, diplomacy with
the U.S. and China needs balance. Since the South Korea and U.S. alliance is
important, we need to build a relationship so both can continue to exist for
each other. But one thing to keep in mind is not to lean toward one side too
much and keep a balance between the U.S. and China. Considering actual economic
benefits, it’s hard to explain the South Korean economy without China. And to
solve North Korean problems, we need the help of China, which has influence
over the North.”
